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CBS has become the latest news outlet to announce that it is using data from Kalshi — the outlet’s “prediction market sponsor” — in coverage of the midterm elections alongside polling data.
CBS’s Director of Elections and Surveys Anthony Salvanto touted the change in several segments this week. In the segments, Salvanto presents the news outlet’s polling data on which party is likely to take control of the House and Senate alongside Kalshi’s betting lines about the elections.
“Our midterm election coverage will include not only CBS News polling data, but also integrated data from Kalshi, our prediction market sponsor,” read a social media post by “CBS Mornings” on Wednesday. “We’ll offer a glimpse into how prediction market traders are pricing race outcomes — but it will be the voters that decide it all.”
In the segments, Salvanto explains how prediction markets and traders use information such as poll data to place bets on the election results. He uses a screen to show the data, with a graphic labeled “Kalshi prediction market odds.”
“The polls let people express how they feel,” Salvanto explained in a segment on “The Takeout with Major Garrett” on Wednesday. “The markets are the traders showing what they think may happen…. We’re bringing all of this to you together to get this larger picture of everything.”
In an article on its sports page this week, CBS was posting affiliate links encouraging users to use their promo code to get a “trading bonus” on Thursday night’s Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game.
CBS is the latest news outlet to partner with Kalshi, which also has deals with CNBC, CNN, Fox News, and The Associated Press, to help drive election and other reporting. Polymarket has also struck partnerships with The Wall Street Journal’s publisher, Dow Jones, as well as Substack. In these so-called prediction markets, users can bet on anything from the outcomes of sports games to the likelihood of the second coming of Jesus Christ to whether or not President Donald Trump will be impeached.
These partnerships have been scrutinized by media experts, who say that reporting on prediction markets has the potential to pose dire harm to journalism and trust in the news media, in addition to posing ethical concerns with regard to the platforms themselves. Analysts have said that these partnerships are often unevenly disclosed or not disclosed at all.
“Predictions crowd out coverage of substance,” wrote Media and Democracy Project co-founder Jonathan Reiss in an op-ed in April. “In politics, this means less information to help voters evaluate candidates. Focusing on the odds gives the impression that the horse race is more important than the issues. Prediction markets turn events that have an impact on people’s lives — and carry a real human cost — into pure entertainment.”
Indeed, Kalshi absurdly touts that bettors on their website have “skin in the game” and therefore are a more accurate glimpse into the future — unlike poll respondents, who the company implicitly suggests are not actually invested in the outcome of an election.
“While polls offer a snapshot of what voters say they will do, prediction markets reveal what people are willing to put real money on what will happen. Because participants have ‘skin in the game,’ market prices often react faster to breaking news, such as a debate performance or a sudden scandal dropping, than traditional surveys,” Kalshi’s website said in a post about its election betting markets in January.
Presenting polls and prediction markets side by side can also warp the public’s sense of truth in reporting. Polling, though flawed, is gathered through established survey methods, often with research standards that are disclosed by the polling outfit. Prediction markets are driven by anonymous gamblers working off of their own private hunches — with only a tiny proportion of bettors who typically win out — and sometimes, information gained through insider trading.
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