Truthout is an indispensable resource for activists, movement leaders and workers everywhere. Please make this work possible with a quick donation.
Polymarket archived a market on whether a nuclear bomb would be detonated by the end of this year, just days after the betting company faced criticism for allowing users to gamble on the commencement of the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran.
Journalist David Sirota posted about the existence of the market on social media on Tuesday evening. The market allowed users to bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by the end of March, June, or the end of the year. At the time of his post, users had placed over $800,000 worth of bets on the question, with users predicting a 22 percent chance that one would be dropped by 2027.
The existence of the market was heavily criticized online, with users raising concerns that it could influence U.S. officials’ decisions.
“Polymarket has created a market that would monetize a nuclear attack amid increasing concerns that bets are happening among government insiders who can make military decisions,” Sirota said.
The company archived the market after backlash.
As of early 2025, the U.S. had over 5,100 nuclear warheads — 1,770 that are deployed, 1,900 in reserves, and 1,477 retired ones awaiting dismantlement, according to research by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Early this year, the group set their Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it’s ever been, warning that global powers like Russia and the U.S. are bringing the world even closer to nuclear catastrophe.
Israel is largely believed to have 90 nuclear warheads and enough materials to produce up to 300. Israel is one of only five countries that has not signed onto the UN Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and has previously refused to submit to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The U.S. and Israel launched an illegal war on Iran with the stated goal of preventing Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon. U.S. and Israeli officials have told lie upon lie about Iran’s nuclear capabilities, having said for decades that Iran is close to possessing a nuclear weapon, while ignoring the danger posed by their own vast nuclear arsenal.
Only two nuclear bombs have ever been used in war. The U.S. dropped both of them on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II — killing between 110,000 people and 210,000 people, with hundreds of thousands suffering from the subsequent radiation exposure.
The Polymarket betting on nuclear war comes just days after reports found credible evidence of insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi over the U.S. and Israel’s unprovoked strikes on Iran, sparking calls for regulation on prediction markets.
The New York Times found in an analysis that there was a surge of over 300 bets of at least $1,000 placed on the possibility of the U.S. striking Iran in the next day on Friday, the day before the attack. This totalled $855,000, and at least 16 accounts that placed bets that day profited over $100,000. Another 109 made at least $10,000.
One account that spent $60,000 on bets on the days leading up to the attack made almost half a million dollars on their bet, the Times reported.
Since December of last year, Polymarket users have traded over $529 million on the question of whether the U.S. would attack Iran. Kalshi has also allowed similar bets, with $54 million traded on the question of the removal of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from power.
The U.S. and Israel assassinated Khamenei through joint airstrikes conducted on February 28.
As of writing, betting on the fall of the Iranian government was featured on the front page of Polymarket’s website, with numerous other bets on the Iran war involving millions of dollars littered across the page.
“I think it’s likely there were people making the decision on war with Iran that had a financial interest in doing so because they had placed a bet on one of these markets,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut) to the Times. “It’s worse than insider trading.”
An urgent appeal for your support: 10 Days to raise $50,000
Truthout relies on individual donations to publish independent journalism, free from political and corporate influence. In fact, we’re almost entirely funded by readers like you.
Unfortunately, donations are down. At a moment when independent journalism is urgently needed, we are struggling to meet our operational costs due to increasing political censorship.
Truthout may end this month in the red without additional help, so we’ve launched a fundraiser. We have 10 days to hit our $50,000 goal. Please make a tax-deductible one-time or monthly donation if you can.