After months of peddling disinformation about measles vaccines, Trump administration officials appear to be planning to fight to keep the U.S.’s measles elimination status, even as outbreaks surge in multiple parts of the country.
Measles has been considered virtually “eliminated” in the U.S. since 2000. According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) definition of “elimination status,” which the U.S. has agreed to abide by, measles is considered virtually eliminated within a member country when there has been “interruption” of transmission of the virus “for a period greater than or equal to 12 months, in the presence of high-quality surveillance.” A country loses its elimination status when there is an end to that “interruption.”
Prior to January 2025, there were months when the spread of measles was virtually nonexistent within the U.S. However, since that time — which roughly coincides with President Donald Trump returning to the White House, and noted anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking control of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) — measles rates have skyrocketed across dozens of jurisdictions.
In 2024, there were just 285 confirmed measles cases in the U.S. In 2025, there were 2,242 confirmed cases.
The surge in cases doesn’t seem like it will dissipate anytime soon. Within the first two weeks of January, there were 171 cases confirmed in the U.S. If that trend continues throughout the rest of the year, it’s possible the number of cases in 2026 will be double the rate seen in 2025.
Because of the sharp increases, PAHO has invited both the U.S. and Mexico to meet with the agency in April to discuss the countries’ elimination status. (Canada has already lost its status.) Despite the increases in measles cases reported, the administration appears to be readying itself to fight to keep its elimination status by dubiously claiming that the numbers do not indicate a connected endemic but rather multiple, separate outbreaks.
“There is currently no epidemiological evidence linking the Texas, Arizona/Utah, or Spartanburg, [South Carolina,] outbreaks as one continuous chain of transmission,” a statement from HHS Deputy Secretary Jim O’Neill read last month.
Some health experts say that claim will be difficult to prove.
“I think it will be hard to demonstrate. I don’t think [the U.S. will] be successful because there’s been a lot of virus transmission across North America,” said Bill Moss, executive director of the International Vaccine Access Center at Johns Hopkins University, speaking to HuffPost.
A final determination for U.S. elimination status won’t be made until after that meeting, when a PAHO panel will make recommendations to the organization’s director, who will issue the ultimate decision.
The potential loss of the U.S.’s measles elimination status comes as the Trump administration is pushing a “Make America Healthy Again” initiative that has included de-emphasizing vaccines. Although the measles vaccine is still part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) recommendations for childhood vaccines (which were reduced by the agency earlier this month), Kennedy has downplayed the importance of getting vaccinated and dismissed the seriousness of the virus.
In late February, for example, Kennedy scoffed at concerns about rising measles rates, claiming that outbreaks happen “every year.” He also has peddled lies about the efficacy of measles vaccines, asserting that they aren’t as good as preventing measles as direct exposure — advice that is dangerous, as measles can result in lifelong complications and even death.
A two-dose regimen of the measles vaccine (available through the measles, mumps, and rubella, or MMR, shot) generally provides lifetime protection to recipients. What little “breakthrough” cases occur are much milder in terms of severity and future complications than cases in which people are unvaccinated.
“Measles is a dangerous disease and the vaccine is very safe,” an explainer from Johns Hopkins University’s website states. “The risks of severe illness, death, or lifelong complications from measles infection far outweigh the generally mild side effects some people experience following vaccination.”
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