The third congressional district of New York — the federal legislative seat that’s been vacated due to the expulsion of former GOP Rep. George Santos — is considered a “toss-up” district in the special election set for early 2024.
Santos, who faces 23 federal charges (including fraud and conspiracy) due to his lies to manipulate donors and constituents in his district and beyond, was removed from his position in the House of Representatives by a supermajority vote on Friday, becoming just the sixth member of that chamber to be expelled in U.S. history.
Santos’s removal has serious political ramifications. For the time being, it lessens by one more seat Republicans’ already narrow majority in the House, creating just a four-seat GOP majority. Santos’s removal also slides the third congressional district into swing-seat status, with the Cook Political Report, a well-respected prognosticator of congressional elections, rating a pending special election for the seat as a toss-up.
New York law requires the governor to announce a new election for a vacated House seat in the state within 90 days — Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is expected to announce the election to take place sometime in February. State law also bypasses the need for a primary election to determine the partisan candidates, requiring county leaders within a congressional district to vote internally for their nominees.
Democrats began their selection process on Friday evening, just hours after Santos was removed from the House. Party leaders from both Nassau and Queens counties describe the meeting as a “screening process” for potential nominees, though it is expected that they will nominate former third congressional district Rep. Tom Suozzi (D).
Suozzi opted not to run in 2022 in order to seek the Democratic Party’s nomination for governor that year, losing out to Hochul. His decision prompted an open race for the seat, making it easier to win for Santos, a newcomer who lied repeatedly about his personal background.
Beyond the rating change for the district, both Republicans and Democrats have acknowledged that the seat will be highly contested in the upcoming election, with GOP leaders recognizing that Santos’s scandals will make the race more difficult for them.
“It’s always tough being a Republican in New York, unless you’re in a district that Elise Stefanik has,” New York Republican strategist Tom Doherty told The Hill.
Democratic leaders, including the head of at least one major super PAC aligned with the party, have made it clear that winning the district — thereby shrinking the GOP’s House majority even more — is a top national priority.
“House Majority PAC plans to play a significant role in the NY-03 special election. We will do whatever it takes to flip this district blue,” said Mike Smith, president of the super PAC.
Help us Prepare for Trump’s Day One
Trump is busy getting ready for Day One of his presidency – but so is Truthout.
Trump has made it no secret that he is planning a demolition-style attack on both specific communities and democracy as a whole, beginning on his first day in office. With over 25 executive orders and directives queued up for January 20, he’s promised to “launch the largest deportation program in American history,” roll back anti-discrimination protections for transgender students, and implement a “drill, drill, drill” approach to ramp up oil and gas extraction.
Organizations like Truthout are also being threatened by legislation like HR 9495, the “nonprofit killer bill” that would allow the Treasury Secretary to declare any nonprofit a “terrorist-supporting organization” and strip its tax-exempt status without due process. Progressive media like Truthout that has courageously focused on reporting on Israel’s genocide in Gaza are in the bill’s crosshairs.
As journalists, we have a responsibility to look at hard realities and communicate them to you. We hope that you, like us, can use this information to prepare for what’s to come.
And if you feel uncertain about what to do in the face of a second Trump administration, we invite you to be an indispensable part of Truthout’s preparations.
In addition to covering the widespread onslaught of draconian policy, we’re shoring up our resources for what might come next for progressive media: bad-faith lawsuits from far-right ghouls, legislation that seeks to strip us of our ability to receive tax-deductible donations, and further throttling of our reach on social media platforms owned by Trump’s sycophants.
We’re preparing right now for Trump’s Day One: building a brave coalition of movement media; reaching out to the activists, academics, and thinkers we trust to shine a light on the inner workings of authoritarianism; and planning to use journalism as a tool to equip movements to protect the people, lands, and principles most vulnerable to Trump’s destruction.
We’re asking all of our readers to start a monthly donation or make a one-time donation – as a commitment to stand with us on day one of Trump’s presidency, and every day after that, as we produce journalism that combats authoritarianism, censorship, injustice, and misinformation. You’re an essential part of our future – please join the movement by making a tax-deductible donation today.
If you have the means to make a substantial gift, please dig deep during this critical time!
With gratitude and resolve,
Maya, Negin, Saima, and Ziggy