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A new analysis of midterm races for the House of Representatives set to take place this fall indicates that only 16 districts are considered true tossups, likely the fewest number of competitive seats seen in a midterm election since such observations began in the 1980s.
The Cook Political Report, which analyzes all 435 House races (as well as Senate races and presidential elections), finds that, as of May 4, 2026 — just six months out from the midterms — 217 seats either “lean,” are “likely,” or are “solid” for Democrats. Meanwhile, 202 seats “lean,” are “likely,” or are “solid” for Republicans.
Democrats have the advantage when it comes to taking control of the legislative chamber, the report suggests. With 217 seats in the “lean” column or better, they would need just one more seat to get a true majority in the House, presuming there are no surprises in the districts the Cook Political Report is predicting they’ll win. Republicans, meanwhile, would need to win all 16 of the tossup seats to reach a majority.
Other prediction sites project similar outcomes. As of Monday, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, for example, is predicting that 217 seats are leaning toward Democrats, while 205 are leaning toward Republicans, with 13 seats up for grabs.
While the two prediction sites are guessing somewhere between 13-16 House seats are considered competitive, polling suggests there should be more competition between the parties.
A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll from late April found that 49 percent of voters wanted Democrats to win Congress, while 44 percent wanted Republicans to win. If extrapolated to the 435 seats that are available, around 213 seats could be considered leaning toward Democratic candidates, while 191 seats would lean GOP. Around 22 seats would be undecided.
Indeed, an analysis of the Cook Political Report’s findings suggested that this year’s races are unusually non-competitive, compared to other years.
“This could make for the fewest competitive seats since political analyst Charlie Cook first published his race ratings in 1984,” read a report from Bloomberg.
The likely culprit for the lack of competitiveness is partisan gerrymandering. States where Republicans are in control of legislatures and governorships have made it more difficult for Democrats to compete against them — and where Democrats are in control, it’s become more difficult for Republicans to win, too. Third parties or independent candidates stand insurmountable odds in most states.
A Supreme Court ruling issued late last month could even further reduce competitiveness in several House midterm races, benefiting Republicans.
The ruling essentially dismantled enforcement mechanisms for the Voting Rights Act that ensured Black-majority districts were drawn in states where Black voters have historically been disenfranchised. Several states are now considering redrawing their maps just months out from the midterms, including Florida, which just passed newly drawn congressional borders that reduce the number of Democratic-held seats by four.
Democrats are suing over the new maps, alleging they violate the state constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering.
“The 2026 plan is, by traditional measures of partisan gerrymandering, one of the most extreme gerrymanders in American history,” their lawsuit alleges.
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