An Emerson/7 News poll released on the eve of the Iowa caucuses found that Sen. Bernie Sanders, buttressed by strong support from younger voters, is leading the 2020 Democratic presidential field in the state by seven percentage points heading into Monday’s voting.
According to the new survey, Sanders has the support of 28% of likely Iowa caucus-goers. Former Vice President Joe Biden polled in second place with 21% support, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 15%.
“The key to Sanders’ lead is his overwhelming support among young voters, as he garners 45% support among 18-49 year-olds,” Emerson noted in a write-up of the poll results.
The survey of 853 likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers was conducted between Jan. 30 and Feb. 2 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.
Iowa Democratic Caucus:
28% @BernieSanders (-2)
21% @JoeBiden (0)
15% @PeteButtigieg (+5)
14% @ewarren (+2)
11% @amyklobuchar (-2)
5% @AndrewYang (0)
4% @TomSteyer (-1)
1% @TulsiGabbard (-4)
1% @MichaelBennet (+1)
0% @DevalPatrick (0)https://t.co/s9O9kasjU5 pic.twitter.com/1gMaZMq0Gg
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) February 2, 2020
The poll comes after Sanders and his campaign surrogates — including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and filmmaker Michael Moore — rallied and made a final pitch to voters across Iowa ahead of the first-in-the-nation caucuses, which are scheduled to begin at 7pm local time.
“The whole world is looking at Iowa,” Sanders said at a rally in Cedar Rapids, which was attended by more than 3,000 people. “The whole world is asking whether or not the people in Iowa are prepared to stand up and fight for justice. All over the world, people are watching to see if the people in Iowa are prepared to help create a government and an economy that works for all of us, not just the one percent.”
Tomorrow night the world will be watching Iowa.
Let Iowa be the beginning of a new America.
An America based on the principles of justice. Social justice. Economic justice. Racial justice. Environmental justice.
Let us show the world what America can become. pic.twitter.com/6JSZTvcALg
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) February 2, 2020
During a stop at his campaign field office in Newton, Iowa on Sunday, Sanders left a note on a white board thanking his staff and volunteers for their hard work in the build-up to Monday’s caucuses:
A note from Bernie to his field staff pic.twitter.com/6KYCQUxwyj
— Faiz (@fshakir) February 2, 2020
“Our volunteers have knocked on 500,000 doors in Iowa and made over 10 million phone calls since January 1st to make sure we win,” Sanders tweeted Sunday.
Thomas J. Adams, senior lecturer in history and American studies at the University of Sydney, wrote in an op-ed for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Monday, that “Iowa is the first test.”
“As Senator Sanders emphasized to the crowd in Ames, if turnout is high, he wins. If it is low, he loses,” Adams wrote. “While he can certainly still win the nomination even if he doesn’t win Iowa, a victory there would likely catapult him to a clean sweep of the first three nominating contests (New Hampshire, followed by Nevada on 22 February).”
“This is the kind of momentum that will make it harder for his opponents to raise the money and pay the staff necessary to compete in the sixteen primaries on 3 March — so-called Super Tuesday — where Sanders is showing impressive strength in polls in states as diverse as California, Texas, and Utah,” Adams added.