A new poll released on Friday shows that most Americans do not believe GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump will accept the 2024 presidential election results if he loses.
The poll also demonstrates that most of his supporters will not accept that outcome, mirroring sentiments they held in the 2020 race that led to the violence at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
The ABC News/Ipsos poll asked respondents to answer whether they personally would accept any result of the 2024 presidential race. More than four in five adults (81 percent) said they would accept whatever outcome happens.
Respondents were also asked to predict whether the two major candidates for president would themselves be accepting of the outcome — 68 percent said the Democratic candidate for president and current Vice President Kamala Harris would accept the results, while only 29 percent said they believe Trump would. Two-thirds of respondents (67 percent) said they believe Trump won’t be prepared to accept the outcome.
The poll further asked if voters are confident that the upcoming election will be counted accurately, finding that just 65 percent believe the outcome will be correct, while 34 percent stated that they lack confidence in what the final results will be. Those numbers represent the highest rate of skepticism that the election will be counted accurately since the poll started asking the question in 2004.
There is a strong correlation between skepticism in the outcome of this year’s race and support for Trump, as the GOP candidate has pushed such conspiracy theories in the 2020 race and continues to do so today. Among those who say they are prepared to accept the results of this year’s election, the rate is higher for supporters of Harris (92 percent) but lower for backers of Trump (76 percent). Indeed, 21 percent of Trump supporters (accounting for 8 percent of voters overall) say they are not prepared to accept the 2024 election results.
The poll suggests that, should Trump legitimately lose the 2024 presidential race to Harris, a large portion of voters, close to 1 in 12 casting a ballot, will not accept the outcome.
Much like he did in 2020, Trump is laying the groundwork to dispute the 2024 presidential election. Trump has not provided any sound or rational basis for why the election should be viewed skeptically, repeating many of the same debunked talking points he peddled to his supporters nearly four years ago when he lost to President Joe Biden.
In April, Trump implied that there would be widespread “cheating” in the election, providing no evidence to back up his assertion. He also implied that, were it not for that supposed cheating, the 2024 election could be “canceled” entirely, adding that he would “win that election right now.”
During the Republican National Convention this summer, Trump continued to claim that the previous election was “rigged” against him — a statement that has no basis in truth whatsoever.
Such claims of fraud can have violent outcomes, as they did when Trump made similar declarations in the run-up to and after the 2020 presidential race.
After weeks of peddling lies about fraud in the 2020 election to his followers, Trump held a rally in Washington D.C. on January 6, 2021. There, he encouraged his enraged supporters to go to the Capitol directly, to protest in person as Congress was certifying Trump’s Electoral College loss to Biden. Before sending them off, Trump told his loyalists to “fight like hell” and that they couldn’t “take back our country with weakness.”
Thousands went on to storm the Capitol grounds, violently breaching into the building and disrupting the proceedings inside. Dozens of Capitol Police and other law enforcement were injured by Trump’s mob of loyalists. At least seven individuals died in connection to that day’s events.
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