The Republican Party’s strategy for winning the 2026 midterm elections — and thus, potentially retaining control of Congress — is reportedly set to rely on arguing to voters that, if Democrats obtain power, they will undoubtedly attempt to impeach President Donald Trump.
The strategy is based on the belief that, after two impeachments against Trump in his first term, the American public has tired of the idea of additional impeachment proceedings against the president. Polling, however, suggests that this theory could backfire on Republicans.
Traditionally, the party of a newly elected president fares poorly in the midterms after they assume office. In 2018, for example, Republicans lost 40 seats in the House of Representatives, dealing an enormous blow to Trump’s legislative agenda and allowing Democrats to serve as a check against his power.
Trump will be directly involved in the midterm races, CNN reports, using his political capital (and his large campaign war chest) in an attempt to motivate his base of voters to turn out. Republican allies of the president are already indicating they will make a potential impeachment against him a key point of the midterms.
“It is a key priority of his, obviously, to keep the House majority, because he knows what would happen if we didn’t,” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said. “Democrats have already said they’re gonna try another baseless impeachment. They’ll do their best to grind the agenda to a halt.”
Axios also reports that Republicans in the White House are prepared to hammer away on the idea that Democrats will seek impeachment if they win the midterms.
“The real danger here if there were a midterm loss — and I don’t think there has to be — you know what’s going to happen … [The] Democratic House is going to go immediately to impeachment for something,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said.
In reality, Democratic Party leaders are wary of using the word “impeachment” when describing their agenda. While lawmakers like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) have recently said that impeachment “should absolutely be on the table” if Democrats take the House — and others, like Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Michigan), have already proposed articles of impeachment against Trump for his various constitutional abuses — the party’s official line is that it’s not an idea they are planning to campaign on.
“[Trump’s impeachment] is not an exercise that we’re willing to undertake,” Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-California), the third highest-ranking Democrat in the House, said regarding the issue.
The narrow majority that Republicans currently have in the House (just a four-seat lead) means that a handful of swing districts will determine the outcome of the 2026 midterms. It’s anyone’s guess who will end up winning at this point — indeed, according to an interactive map at 270toWin, which is based on ratings of House races from three different prognosticators, the race is currently neck-and-neck.
While talk of impeachment from both parties seems to demonstrate that the issue is being viewed as one that could hinder Democrats’ chances, polls from last month suggest just the opposite: that, in some targeted races, a promise to impeach Trump could actually help the Democrats’ cause.
A mid-April poll commissioned by Research Collaborative and ASO Communications in collaboration with Data for Progress found that a majority of voters, 52 percent, supported the idea of Trump being impeached. The vote was a near-even split, however, with 48 percent of voters opposed to the idea.
However, breaking down party allegiance, 84 percent of Democrats said they would support the idea of a Trump impeachment right now, indicating that the issue could motivate the party’s base to turn out in the 2026 midterms. Fifty-five percent of independent voters also said they would view the idea of impeachment positively. And interestingly, one in five GOP voters said they, too, would back impeachment efforts.
“Most Americans see impeachment as the legitimate and necessary response to defend the Constitution and protect democratic governance,” the poll concluded.
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