Disagreements within the Republican conference in the House of Representatives over who should be the next Speaker of the House could potentially lead to a constitutional crisis, temporarily upending the formal process of inaugurating President-elect Donald Trump.
Current Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) presided over a tenuous and razor-thin majority over the past year following the unprecedented ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. When the new Congress is sworn in on Friday, January 3, his majority will become even smaller, with Republicans holding 219 seats in the chamber versus Democrats’ 215 seats (one seat being presently vacant).
Support from a majority of the House — in this case, 218 votes — is needed to become speaker, which means Johnson can only afford to lose one vote from Republicans in the House, as Democrats have indicated they will not vote to keep him in, opting to support Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) instead.
Johnson is unpopular with Democrats for a number of reasons. He espouses Christian nationalist viewpoints, and has tried to use his position as speaker to influence a New York City jury that was deciding a criminal case involving Trump. He also led the effort to gather signatures for an amicus brief to the Supreme Court in a case that sought to have that court delay certification of Joe Biden’s presidential win in 2020. Johnson still refuses to acknowledge the legitimacy of that election.
However, it’s Johnson’s economic actions that have riled some Republicans up, with several far right GOP lawmakers upset with him for passing a compromise bill to fund the government this month, which included increased spending on aid for victims of hurricanes this past year, as well as other spending priorities.
At least one Republican lawmaker, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-West Virginia), has said that he is an absolute “no” on supporting Johnson because of his efforts to keep the government funded.
“Mike Johnson just gave me another 1557 reasons not to vote for him,” Massie said earlier this month, referring to the spending bill.
Even after Trump endorsed Johnson on Monday morning for another tenure as speaker, Massie didn’t relent, saying he respected and supported the president-elect but disagreed with him.
“[Trump’s] endorsement of Mike Johnson is going to work out about as well as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan,” Massie said in a post on X, referring to the Wisconsin Republican former congressman who was speaker during part of Trump’s first term in office.
Another Republican, Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana, also indicated that she was leaning away from Johnson. Citing the same government spending issues as Massie, Spartz said in a statement:
We must have a vision and a concrete PLAN to deliver on President Trump’s agenda for the American people, which I have not seen from our current speaker despite countless discussions and public promises.
A handful of other Republicans have not yet indicated whether or not they will back Johnson again, leaving uncertain for now what outcome is most likely to happen come Friday.
If a new speaker isn’t selected by January 3, it could have implications for January 6, when Congress is slated to meet in a joint session to certify the results of Trump’s Electoral College win in the 2024 election.
Two years ago, it took 15 votes over the course of a week to select McCarthy as speaker. If that same process plays out (or lasts longer) this time around, it’s unclear whether the certification of the Electoral College can go on without a speaker in place.
Most legal experts agree that a compromise could allow the process to play out. However, because of the unprecedented nature of the possible situation, it’s a legal “gray area,” Arizona State University political science professor Steve Smith said in comments to Roll Call.
“The one precedent that is clear and could help determine what happens is at the start of a new Congress, the election of the speaker is the first thing the House does,” Smith added. “Nothing else happens until the speaker is elected. It’s been that way since 1789 when the first Congress convened. Now, that worked just fine for the first Congress. But that could prove problematic here.”
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