Fake LA Mayor Race Poll Raises Alarm Over Election Manipulation

Polls released this election cycle by a firm called “Median Strategies” were fake, the company admitted, raising alarm that false numbers could be used to manipulate future electoral outcomes or prediction market betting.

A Median Strategies poll in the Los Angeles mayoral race, published earlier this month, showed incumbent Mayor Karen Bass ahead of city council member Nithya Raman by nearly 12 points. Bass cited the poll as evidence to voters that she was on the path to victory in November.

“Doing the work, showing up, and gaining momentum. Let’s do this, LA!” Bass wrote in a now-deleted post on X.

Upon closer examination by The Los Angeles Times, however, the numbers didn’t seem to make any sense. When contacted by the publication about their polls, Median Strategies admitted the numbers were falsified.

“All previously published polling releases have been withdrawn and should not be cited or treated as genuine polling data,” the company wrote on its website, adding that their work was part of a “short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.”

Bass’s post on social media indicates that the company’s experiment — if that was indeed the reason they posted the fake numbers — successfully showcased how little polling data is actually scrutinized. A spokesperson for Raman’s campaign blasted the mayor for not “properly vetting” the poll, claiming it was demonstrative of Bass’s other shortcomings.

“It is the latest example of an administration that too often struggles to get the basics right. … Angelenos deserve a mayor who gets the facts right, communicates clearly, and does the work before announcing the result,” the Raman campaign spokesperson said.

The use of fake polls to confuse candidates is troubling on its own — but other uses of fake polling data could be equally, if not more, concerning, commentators have noted.

Fake polling numbers can depress voter turnout, for example, if the data falsely suggests that a certain candidate has a wider lead than they actually do.

“Research shows that voters often look to polling as a source of information about candidate viability, momentum, and broader public sentiment,” a Brennan Center analysis of fake polling explains. “By exaggerating a candidate’s strength or suggesting an opponent has little chance of winning, manipulated polling can create a bandwagon effect, discourage turnout, and alter perceptions of a race during a moment many voters are deciding how to cast their ballots.”

Deceptive polls could also have a disturbing impact on prediction markets, which are now a multibillion dollar industry. Such platforms allow users to place bets on the outcomes of real-world events, such as elections. Bettors could potentially be swayed by manipulated polls — or manufacture their own fake polls to mislead other bettors.

“The rapid growth of prediction markets, and their plans to prey on elections, are direct threats to undermining trust in electoral outcomes,” explained Jim Allen, the elections director for Delaware County, Pennsylvania, speaking to Wired. “The overriding concern is that prediction markets have the potential to monetize a reward for manipulating results and, equally concerning, capitalizing on the anger and frustration by those who lose in these prediction markets.”

Fake polling numbers also have the potential to magnify voter distrust in the outcome of elections — at a time when a sizable portion of the electorate is already skeptical about election results due to President Donald Trump’s false claims of fraud in the 2020 presidential race. If voters believe that fake polling numbers are legitimate, and their preferred candidate loses, they could wrongly see the outcome as proof of election interference or corruption.