Israel is on track to wipe out nearly the entire population of Gaza if global powers don’t intervene to stop its genocide, a UN expert has warned, based on estimates of the true death toll in Gaza from the first 11 months of the slaughter.
“Reading the health experts, I am starting to think with horror that if it’s not stopped, Israel’s assault could end up exterminating almost the entire population in Gaza over the next couple of years,” Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur for Palestine, wrote on Friday on social media.
Albanese cited a recent report from University of Edinburgh global public health chair Devi Sridhar finding that the true death toll from Israel’s genocide could be estimated at 335,500 as of September.
Sridhar based this rough calculation off of an estimate by public health researchers published in The Lancet in July regarding typical indirect death counts from previous conflicts, citing research hailed as the gold standard in the field. At that time, the researchers estimated that the true death toll could be roughly 186,000, stemming from direct killings like bombings as well as Israel’s destruction of the health, food and sanitation systems in Gaza.
The death toll, then, could be between 15 and 20 percent of the population by the end of this year, Albanese said, in just over a year of Israel’s genocide. And, as Sridhar writes in her Guardian report, the calculation that she borrows from The Lancet editorial is highly conservative — meaning the death toll could be even higher than her 335,500 estimate.
Israeli officials have repeatedly suggested that they would be happy to kill all 2.2 million Palestinians in Gaza. Last month, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich — who is currently leading Israel’s charge to annex the occupied West Bank — moaned that international powers wouldn’t let Israel wipe out Gaza’s population.
“Nobody will let us cause 2 million civilians to die of hunger even though it might be justified and moral until our hostages are returned,” Smotrich said.
However, global powers, particularly the U.S., are currently allowing Israel to continue its genocide, with no end in sight. Because the true death toll may not be known for years after the genocide is over — if it’s ever fully calculated — Israel is on the path to kill off Gaza’s Palestinian population with no repercussions.
“Once the dust settles, I can’t imagine how the world will go on after having allowed that. Again,” Albanese said.
Currently, the official death toll from Palestinian health officials is just under 41,000 Palestinians, including over 16,000 children. Health and conflict experts have long said, however, that the true death toll is likely far, far higher, as it’s impossible for health officials on the ground to account for deaths not reported through health centers and hospitals.
In July, U.S. health workers who have returned from medical missions to Gaza estimated that the true death toll is likely at least 92,000 Palestinians — a count the health workers also said is likely a vast undercount. This count doesn’t include, for instance, the 10,000 people who have been estimated to be missing under the rubble, presumed dead.
Meanwhile, Israel’s humanitarian catastrophe only worsens by the day, subjecting Palestinians to famine and epidemics as a result of Israel’s deadly humanitarian aid blockade. The U.S., Israel’s biggest booster on the world stage, has pledged to continue its nearly unconditional support of Israel no matter the atrocities it carries out against Palestinians.
The UN warned on Thursday that the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza remains “beyond catastrophic” as Israel’s recent mass forced evacuation campaign caused nearly half of the Gaza population to be deprived of food rations last month.
UN Secretary-General spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said in a press briefing on Thursday that over 1 million Palestinians in southern and central Gaza did not receive any food assistance in August.
This is due to a combination of a lack of food stocks as well Israel’s continuous forced displacement orders that aid groups say are making it nearly impossible to operate safely. At least 70 kitchens preparing food aid were forced to suspend or relocate their operations because of Israel’s displacement orders last month.
The death toll due to Israel’s famine is unknown since it is not possible for health officials to count people who have died due to starvation outside of health facilities.
While aid groups made some progress in delivering cooked meals to families across Gaza in recent weeks, “the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains beyond catastrophic and we still do not have all the conditions necessary to support people near the scale that they actually need,” Dujarric said.
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