Skip to content Skip to footer

UN Expert Warns Israel on Track to Exterminate Nearly Entire Gaza Population

“Once the dust settles, I can’t imagine how the world will go on after having allowed that. Again,” Albanese said.

Displaced Palestinians react among their tents which have been destroyed under Israeli attacks in the yard of Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir Al Balah, Gaza on September 05, 2024. 4 people were killed and many people were injured.

Israel is on track to wipe out nearly the entire population of Gaza if global powers don’t intervene to stop its genocide, a UN expert has warned, based on estimates of the true death toll in Gaza from the first 11 months of the slaughter.

“Reading the health experts, I am starting to think with horror that if it’s not stopped, Israel’s assault could end up exterminating almost the entire population in Gaza over the next couple of years,” Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur for Palestine, wrote on Friday on social media.

Albanese cited a recent report from University of Edinburgh global public health chair Devi Sridhar finding that the true death toll from Israel’s genocide could be estimated at 335,500 as of September.

Sridhar based this rough calculation off of an estimate by public health researchers published in The Lancet in July regarding typical indirect death counts from previous conflicts, citing research hailed as the gold standard in the field. At that time, the researchers estimated that the true death toll could be roughly 186,000, stemming from direct killings like bombings as well as Israel’s destruction of the health, food and sanitation systems in Gaza.

The death toll, then, could be between 15 and 20 percent of the population by the end of this year, Albanese said, in just over a year of Israel’s genocide. And, as Sridhar writes in her Guardian report, the calculation that she borrows from The Lancet editorial is highly conservative — meaning the death toll could be even higher than her 335,500 estimate.

Israeli officials have repeatedly suggested that they would be happy to kill all 2.2 million Palestinians in Gaza. Last month, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich — who is currently leading Israel’s charge to annex the occupied West Bank — moaned that international powers wouldn’t let Israel wipe out Gaza’s population.

“Nobody will let us cause 2 million civilians to die of hunger even though it might be justified and moral until our hostages are returned,” Smotrich said.

However, global powers, particularly the U.S., are currently allowing Israel to continue its genocide, with no end in sight. Because the true death toll may not be known for years after the genocide is over — if it’s ever fully calculated — Israel is on the path to kill off Gaza’s Palestinian population with no repercussions.

“Once the dust settles, I can’t imagine how the world will go on after having allowed that. Again,” Albanese said.

Currently, the official death toll from Palestinian health officials is just under 41,000 Palestinians, including over 16,000 children. Health and conflict experts have long said, however, that the true death toll is likely far, far higher, as it’s impossible for health officials on the ground to account for deaths not reported through health centers and hospitals.

In July, U.S. health workers who have returned from medical missions to Gaza estimated that the true death toll is likely at least 92,000 Palestinians — a count the health workers also said is likely a vast undercount. This count doesn’t include, for instance, the 10,000 people who have been estimated to be missing under the rubble, presumed dead.

Meanwhile, Israel’s humanitarian catastrophe only worsens by the day, subjecting Palestinians to famine and epidemics as a result of Israel’s deadly humanitarian aid blockade. The U.S., Israel’s biggest booster on the world stage, has pledged to continue its nearly unconditional support of Israel no matter the atrocities it carries out against Palestinians.

The UN warned on Thursday that the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza remains “beyond catastrophic” as Israel’s recent mass forced evacuation campaign caused nearly half of the Gaza population to be deprived of food rations last month.

UN Secretary-General spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said in a press briefing on Thursday that over 1 million Palestinians in southern and central Gaza did not receive any food assistance in August.

This is due to a combination of a lack of food stocks as well Israel’s continuous forced displacement orders that aid groups say are making it nearly impossible to operate safely. At least 70 kitchens preparing food aid were forced to suspend or relocate their operations because of Israel’s displacement orders last month.

The death toll due to Israel’s famine is unknown since it is not possible for health officials to count people who have died due to starvation outside of health facilities.

While aid groups made some progress in delivering cooked meals to families across Gaza in recent weeks, “the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains beyond catastrophic and we still do not have all the conditions necessary to support people near the scale that they actually need,” Dujarric said.

Help us Prepare for Trump’s Day One

Trump is busy getting ready for Day One of his presidency – but so is Truthout.

Trump has made it no secret that he is planning a demolition-style attack on both specific communities and democracy as a whole, beginning on his first day in office. With over 25 executive orders and directives queued up for January 20, he’s promised to “launch the largest deportation program in American history,” roll back anti-discrimination protections for transgender students, and implement a “drill, drill, drill” approach to ramp up oil and gas extraction.

Organizations like Truthout are also being threatened by legislation like HR 9495, the “nonprofit killer bill” that would allow the Treasury Secretary to declare any nonprofit a “terrorist-supporting organization” and strip its tax-exempt status without due process. Progressive media like Truthout that has courageously focused on reporting on Israel’s genocide in Gaza are in the bill’s crosshairs.

As journalists, we have a responsibility to look at hard realities and communicate them to you. We hope that you, like us, can use this information to prepare for what’s to come.

And if you feel uncertain about what to do in the face of a second Trump administration, we invite you to be an indispensable part of Truthout’s preparations.

In addition to covering the widespread onslaught of draconian policy, we’re shoring up our resources for what might come next for progressive media: bad-faith lawsuits from far-right ghouls, legislation that seeks to strip us of our ability to receive tax-deductible donations, and further throttling of our reach on social media platforms owned by Trump’s sycophants.

We’re preparing right now for Trump’s Day One: building a brave coalition of movement media; reaching out to the activists, academics, and thinkers we trust to shine a light on the inner workings of authoritarianism; and planning to use journalism as a tool to equip movements to protect the people, lands, and principles most vulnerable to Trump’s destruction.

We urgently need your help to prepare. As you know, our December fundraiser is our most important of the year and will determine the scale of work we’ll be able to do in 2025. We’ve set two goals: to raise $150,000 in one-time donations and to add 1,500 new monthly donors by midnight on December 31.

Today, we’re asking all of our readers to start a monthly donation or make a one-time donation – as a commitment to stand with us on day one of Trump’s presidency, and every day after that, as we produce journalism that combats authoritarianism, censorship, injustice, and misinformation. You’re an essential part of our future – please join the movement by making a tax-deductible donation today.

If you have the means to make a substantial gift, please dig deep during this critical time!

With gratitude and resolve,

Maya, Negin, Saima, and Ziggy