Poll Finds Mamdani Winning NYC Mayoral Primary by 4 Points Over Cuomo

The final independent poll released before Tuesday’s primary election in New York City has shown democratic socialist Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani triumphing over disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nearly four points in the last round of ranked-choice voting.

According to an Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll released Monday, Mamdani receives 51.8 percent of the vote in the eighth round of a simulated ranked choice ballot, to Cuomo’s 48.2 percent. This is a 3.6-point margin, which is just within the margin of error of 3 percent for this round of the poll.

The simulation shows that Mamdani’s support rises substantially with subsequent rounds of voting, as he splits much of the vote with city Comptroller Brad Lander and other candidates in earlier rounds. In the first round, Mamdani trails behind Cuomo, with 34 percent of the vote to Cuomo’s 36 percent.

However, as other candidates fall off, Mamdani gets more of their split than Cuomo. In the second-to-last round, for instance, Mamdani gets only 39 percent of the vote, while Cuomo gets 41 percent and Lander gets 20 percent. But more of Lander’s share breaks off for Mamdani in the last round, granting the progressive a win.

The poll was released the day before the primary election on Tuesday, June 24. A Mamdani victory could have reverberating effects across the country and potentially the world; even if he loses the primary race, Mamdani’s landmark, upstart grassroots campaign has already had impacts on the way the left thinks about the possibilities of campaigning.

As many commentators have noted, the race between the two leading candidates is serving as a referendum on the moneyed, old school style of the Democratic Party versus the progressive wing that rejects many of the party’s entrenched standards pushing it further to the right.

For instance, Cuomo’s campaign is backed by numerous billionaires, including conservatives, with his PACs and super PACs spending over $24 million on the race so far on top of the roughly $8 million that candidates are allowed to spend directly on their races. Outside spending for Cuomo has represented nearly half of all outside spending across all New York City primary races this year, City & State New York reports, with Cuomo PAC Fix the City representing the largest PAC in the history of New York City.

Cuomo has the backing of powerful corporations like DoorDash, one of the top donors to Fix the City. The super PAC landed itself in hot water earlier this month when a reporter posted a mailer by the group that edited a picture of Mamdani to make his beard look darker and larger.

“This is blatant Islamophobia — the kind of racism that explains why MAGA billionaires support his campaign,” Mamdani said at the time.

Other wealthy and powerful people have lined up behind Cuomo, who resigned from his position as governor in 2021 after nearly a dozen women accused him of sexual harassment. Former President Bill Clinton, who has been accused of sexual assault and harassment by numerous women, endorsed Cuomo on Sunday.

Meanwhile, over the weekend, Mamdani was sharing clips of a walk he took from the top to the bottom of Manhattan on Friday. The progressive has repeatedly criticized Cuomo for not even living in the city and only recently changing his residency to his daughter’s apartment from his previous home address in Westchester County, north of the city.

“On Friday night, we walked the length of Manhattan, from Inwood Hill to Battery Park,” Mamdani said on social media on Monday. “New Yorkers deserve a Mayor they can see, hear, even yell at. The city is in the streets.”