The ceasefire in Gaza came closest to collapsing since it began in mid-January after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel’s halt of the entry of humanitarian aid into the strip. The first phase of the ceasefire deal came to an end on Sunday as Israel continued to refuse to begin negotiations over the second phase of the deal, which were supposed to commence in early February.
Throughout the 42 days of the first phase of the ceasefire, Israel systematically violated the terms of the deal by delaying the delivery of humanitarian aid, heavy machinery for reconstruction, and prefabricated mobile homes, while continuing to periodically open fire on and kill Palestinian civilians in Gaza and obstruct the return of the displaced to their homes. These violations have thrown the ceasefire into crisis on several occasions.
First, in late January, Israel decided to suspend the release of Palestinian prisoners after Hamas released three female Israelis without including Israeli captive Arbel Yehud. Hamas later released Yehud during the same week, and the exchange process resumed. Then, in late February, Israel announced suspending the release of over 600 Palestinian prisoners following Netanyahu’s outrage over Hamas’s “degrading” handover ceremonies of Israeli captives. Hamas accepted, and the last batch of Israeli captives, four dead bodies, were handed over to Egypt without ceremony.
According to the signed ceasefire deal, Hamas and Israel were scheduled to begin talks over the second phase 16 days after the ceasefire began, which were supposed to include negotiations over terms for permanently ending the war. Israel was scheduled to withdraw its forces from the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border last week, but the Israeli government refused, in a clear indication that Israel intends to skirt entering the second phase of the deal.
Why Israel Doesn’t Want a Second Phase
Aside from the prisoner exchange, Israel’s and Hamas’s visions for ending the war are diametrically opposed. Hamas has accepted giving up sole governance of the Gaza Strip, expressing its willingness to acquiesce to a technocratic regime ruling over Gaza as part of a Palestinian “national consensus” government, although it insists that such a government must remain an internal Palestinian matter without outside intervention. Israel, on the other hand, rejects even a Palestinian Authority-run postwar government and insists that Hamas must completely disarm and that its leaders must leave Gaza. Netanyahu has gone so far as to state that he won’t accept any Palestinian administration of Gaza.
On Sunday, Netanyahu announced Israel’s acceptance of a proposal he attributed to U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The proposal was to have an “intermediate” phase between the first and the second, in which Israel and Hamas would maintain a “temporary” ceasefire for a month until the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish Passover feast, with Hamas releasing half of the remaining 59 Israeli captives. The other half would be released at the end of the temporary ceasefire if both parties reached an agreement to end the war.
Hamas refused the proposal in a statement on Sunday, insisting that such a proposal is in violation of the original ceasefire deal pushed for by the U.S. and which Israel accepted. Hamas stressed that it remains committed to the original ceasefire deal and to moving on to the second phase, as agreed previously.
Israel Escalates Violations, Kills Three Palestinians
As Israel halted the entry of humanitarian aid to over 2 million Palestinian civilians in Gaza, Netanyahu reportedly said during a cabinet meeting on Sunday that there would be “no free lunch” for Palestinians and that the release of Israeli captives would be the price for allowing in food, medicine, fuel, and tents for displaced Palestinian civilians.
On the ground, Israel has also been raising the stakes by threatening to resume the war. On Sunday, Israeli drones struck several locations in central Rafah and in Beit Hanoun in north Gaza, killing three Palestinians and wounding at least seven. Meanwhile, armored Israeli vehicles opened fire on Palestinians in the Abasan area, east of Khan Younis.
In response, Hamas called Israel’s suspension of the entry of aid into Gaza a form of “cheap blackmail,” stating it would hold Israel responsible for the consequences. Earlier on Saturday, Hamas’s armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, released video footage showing two Israeli captives, Yair Horn, 46, who was released during the prisoner exchange, and his brother, Eitan Horn, 38, expressing their sadness at being separated, as Eitan was left behind. Eitan Horn addressed the Israeli government, urging it to “sign the second phase [of the ceasefire], the third phase. Enough war, enough!”
The families of Israeli captives and their supporters stepped up protests in several cities, demanding that the ceasefire be upheld and that the prisoner exchange continue. Hundreds of Israelis blocked roads leading to the residences of key government members, including Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, in Tel Aviv, and PM Netanyahu in occupied Jerusalem.
As the ceasefire in Gaza reaches the closest it has ever been to collapse, eyes turn to Witkoff’s expected arrival to the region later this week, during which he is expected to push the ceasefire forward. Witkoff’s visit will follow the meeting of the Arab League’s summit, set for Tuesday, where Arab leaders are expected to discuss Egypt’s plan to rebuild Gaza and present a plan to run the strip after the war.
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