Skip to content Skip to footer

Experts Say GOP House Takeover Would’ve Been Impossible Without Gerrymandering

“The U.S. is a center-left country with a gerrymandering problem,” one elections expert said.

House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) speaks during a weekly news conference at the U.S. Capitol July 1, 2021.

Gerrymandering played a major role in helping Republicans win the House in the midterm elections this year, according to political experts and analysts.

The redistricting of congressional boundaries takes place in the U.S. every 10 years. When legislative leaders manipulate the process in order to win in future election cycles, it’s called gerrymandering — named after Elbridge Gerry, a former vice president and governor of Massachusetts who used the redistricting process to his advantage.

Historically, gerrymandering has been used to ensure that people of color could not elect their own leaders to office, a method of voter suppression that continues to this day. Gerrymandering is also used to strengthen one political party’s power over another through the drawing of legislative districts.

Despite a lackluster showing and independent voters favoring Democrats in this year’s races, exit polling data shows that Republicans will likely win the House — a victory that many elections experts believe will be the result of Republicans realigning political borders to their advantage.

“Republicans wouldn’t be slight favorites to win House control right now if they hadn’t been able to gerrymander far more states than Dems,” said Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the Cook Political Report. Wasserman also noted that Democrats only have the House majority currently because state judges blocked gerrymandered district maps in the past few years.

The sentiment was echoed by numerous journalists on social media.

“One potential takeaway from [the midterms] is that the US is a center left country with a gerrymandering problem,” freelance journalist Katelyn Burns tweeted in response to the election results.

“If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives by current projections, their victory can be attributed to the Supreme Court’s 5–4 order in February suspending the Voting Rights Act’s ban on racial gerrymandering,” said Mark Joseph Stern, senior writer at Slate.

Stephen Wolf, staff writer for Daily Kos, expressed a similar opinion.

“It appears very likely that gerrymandering cost Dems the majority, with the U.S. Supreme Court allowing elections to proceed in several states where lower courts ruled GOP maps illegally diluted Black voting power,” Wolf said.

Gerrymandering is especially blatant in states like Wisconsin, where the governor’s race and state legislative contests had vastly different outcomes. Although Gov. Tony Evers (D) won reelection this week with more than half of the vote, Republican lawmakers will control close to two-thirds of the state legislature. Only two of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts will go to Democrats, while the remaining six were won by Republicans, in spite of the fact that a statewide U.S. Senate election produced a nearly 50-50 split in the electorate.

“GOP gerrymandering has made it nearly impossible for Dems to win the majority in the Wisconsin legislature,” noted Jessica Post, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

Truthout Is Preparing to Meet Trump’s Agenda With Resistance at Every Turn

Dear Truthout Community,

If you feel rage, despondency, confusion and deep fear today, you are not alone. We’re feeling it too. We are heartsick. Facing down Trump’s fascist agenda, we are desperately worried about the most vulnerable people among us, including our loved ones and everyone in the Truthout community, and our minds are racing a million miles a minute to try to map out all that needs to be done.

We must give ourselves space to grieve and feel our fear, feel our rage, and keep in the forefront of our mind the stark truth that millions of real human lives are on the line. And simultaneously, we’ve got to get to work, take stock of our resources, and prepare to throw ourselves full force into the movement.

Journalism is a linchpin of that movement. Even as we are reeling, we’re summoning up all the energy we can to face down what’s coming, because we know that one of the sharpest weapons against fascism is publishing the truth.

There are many terrifying planks to the Trump agenda, and we plan to devote ourselves to reporting thoroughly on each one and, crucially, covering the movements resisting them. We also recognize that Trump is a dire threat to journalism itself, and that we must take this seriously from the outset.

After the election, the four of us sat down to have some hard but necessary conversations about Truthout under a Trump presidency. How would we defend our publication from an avalanche of far right lawsuits that seek to bankrupt us? How would we keep our reporters safe if they need to cover outbreaks of political violence, or if they are targeted by authorities? How will we urgently produce the practical analysis, tools and movement coverage that you need right now — breaking through our normal routines to meet a terrifying moment in ways that best serve you?

It will be a tough, scary four years to produce social justice-driven journalism. We need to deliver news, strategy, liberatory ideas, tools and movement-sparking solutions with a force that we never have had to before. And at the same time, we desperately need to protect our ability to do so.

We know this is such a painful moment and donations may understandably be the last thing on your mind. But we must ask for your support, which is needed in a new and urgent way.

We promise we will kick into an even higher gear to give you truthful news that cuts against the disinformation and vitriol and hate and violence. We promise to publish analyses that will serve the needs of the movements we all rely on to survive the next four years, and even build for the future. We promise to be responsive, to recognize you as members of our community with a vital stake and voice in this work.

Please dig deep if you can, but a donation of any amount will be a truly meaningful and tangible action in this cataclysmic historical moment.

We’re with you. Let’s do all we can to move forward together.

With love, rage, and solidarity,

Maya, Negin, Saima, and Ziggy