Middle East Analyst: Netanyahu Will Try to Scuttle Ceasefire After First Phase

Israel’s security cabinet has approved a long-awaited ceasefire deal with Hamas. If finalized, the ceasefire is expected to go into effect on Sunday. “The main challenge will be the second phase, and here there are many, many problems on the horizon,” says Israeli journalist Gideon Levy, who stresses the importance of also freeing the thousands of Palestinians held by Israel. “Again and again, Israelis always think that they are the only victims.” The announcement comes in the final week of U.S. President Joe Biden’s term as Israel prepares for the incoming Trump administration. “The only reason that Israel did not agree to this text until this week is because it didn’t have to worry about U.S. pressure,” says Middle East analyst Mouin Rabbani, who explains why the limited agreement will not shift politics in Israel and Palestine. “I believe Netanyahu will do everything possible, with the collusion of certain Trump officials, to try to scuttle it after the first phase.”

TRANSCRIPT

This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.

AMY GOODMAN: We begin today’s show on the long-awaited ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Israel’s security cabinet has just voted to recommend the full Cabinet approve the proposed ceasefire and hostage release agreement. A government meeting intended to grant final approval will be convened possibly even as we broadcast this program. If approved, the ceasefire is expected to go into effect Sunday. Three hostages are also expected to be released Sunday afternoon.

The Israeli Cabinet vote was initially expected on Thursday but was delayed by widening rifts with Israel’s governing coalition. Two far-right ministers in the government, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, are threatening to resign if the deal is passed. This is Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir urging Prime Minister Netanyahu to reject the agreement with Hamas.

ITAMAR BEN-GVIR: [translated] The willingness to pay heavy prices for the release of hostages also exists with us. We are ready to do anything that will lead to their release, provided that the price does not include a much heavier price than what happened on the 7th of October. The existing deal increases Hamas’s appetite and motivation. This deal is letting them attack, explode and kidnap and get what they want.

AMY GOODMAN: Meanwhile, Gaza remains under relentless attack. Over 113 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since the announcement of the ceasefire deal on Wednesday. At least 28 of them were children, 31 women.

MOHAMED AL-QOUQA: [translated] The repercussion and effects of the war, especially the psychological impact on us, women and our children, will be the most challenging issue. The war was long, and what we witnessed during it was unprecedented.

AMY GOODMAN: For the latest on the ceasefire and hostage release, we’re joined by two guests. Gideon Levy is an award-winning Israeli journalist, author, columnist for the newspaper Haaretz, member of its editorial board. His new article, “Free All Hostages — Israeli and Palestinian.” Levy’s latest book, The Killing of Gaza: Reports on a Catastrophe. And we’re joined by Mouin Rabbani, Middle East analyst, co-editor of Jadaliyya and host of the Connections podcast. He is a former senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, contributor to the book, Deluge: Gaza and Israel from Crisis to Cataclysm.

Gideon, you’re in Tel Aviv. Let’s begin with you. As we broadcast right now, the security cabinet, the war cabinet, has just voted for the ceasefire deal. It now goes to the larger Cabinet. Explain the significance of this and the resistance.

GIDEON LEVY: No significance at all, because the first phase will be implemented from Sunday. Those are rituals. But once Netanyahu decided that he’s willing to go for the first phase of the deal, this phase will go to its way. The main challenge will be the second phase, and here there are many, many problems in the horizon. But right now we are going through the motions. The Cabinet, the government and two ministers will speak against it, and all the others will be in favor of it. And Sunday, the first hostages are going to be released.

AMY GOODMAN: And talk about the piece that you wrote, your new article, “All Hostages — Israeli and Palestinian.” They’re saying there will — “Free All Hostages — Israeli and Palestinian.” They’re saying, over this first period of 42 days in the ceasefire phases, 33 hostages will be released. They’re talking about Israeli hostages. A few of them are American. Not as much is said about the, what, something like 1,000 Palestinians. Talk about who they are.

GIDEON LEVY: So, part of them are terrorists, murderers, who sit decades and decades in jail for things that they have been doing in their early days and really paid their role, paid their price in jail. Part of them are political prisoners, don’t be mistaken. And part of them are hostages. Israel had captured in Gaza — we don’t know the exact figure — hundreds and maybe thousands of Palestinians.

They are being held in horrible conditions. I don’t want to compare to the conditions of the hostages, the Israeli hostages, but I’m not sure that they are being held in better conditions, and maybe even worse conditions. We don’t know, either. But in any case, in inhuman conditions, really inhuman. Haaretz has revealed in the last weeks some, really, information which nobody can remain indifferent. And they are not counted at all. Nobody cares about them. They don’t have families. Nobody’s happy about them. Nobody cares about them. I mean, they are not part of the international discourse, while they are also human beings, part of them terrorists, but also terrorists have some rights. You know, even the Nukhba, who did those horrible things on the 7th of October, have some rights, and they don’t get their rights.

So, in any case, I am thrilled. I am really shivering when I think about the Israeli hostages. But I cannot help it. There is also a huge number of Palestinian hostages, and they deserve also some freedom.

AMY GOODMAN: Would you say that Israel is rounding up more and more — we’re talking about thousands — in this yearlong Israel’s war on Gaza, so that they would release them as part of a deal to get the hostages out, the Israeli hostages out?

GIDEON LEVY: First of all, I’m not sure they will be released in this deal. Right now those who are candidates to be released are long-standing or long-sitting prisoners of decades, who did all kind of terrible things in the ’80s, in the ’90s, and now will be released. Others are even criminal prisoners. I’m not sure that those from Gaza will be released now.

And the thing is that Israel is really complaining, very rightly so, about the conditions, about the fact that the International Red Cross does visit the Israeli hostages, about the fact that their families don’t know if they are alive or not. The same is valid about the Palestinian prisoners and hostages. And therefore, I call to remember that there are also some others. We are not alone. Again and again, Israelis always think that they are the only victims. No.

AMY GOODMAN: Mouin Rabbani, we want to get your response to what’s happening right now. We saw the images of people in Gaza erupting in celebration at the news of a ceasefire. We see the heartbreaking interviews with Israeli hostage families who are demanding that Netanyahu sign the deal. We don’t see that same intimate interviews with people on the streets in Gaza talking about what they’ve lost, because the Israeli government bans all international journalists from being on the ground in Gaza, though Democracy Now! does interview people in Gaza. Can you talk about the significance of this and how this came about, President Biden saying, “This is my deal,” though giving a nod to President Trump, and Trump saying he’s ungracious in not saying it was his envoy that sealed this deal, that forced his ally, Netanyahu, to finally sign off on the ceasefire?

MOUIN RABBANI: Well, it’s quite clear that Biden had next to nothing to do with this deal. This is a deal that was formulated by Netanyahu and presented on his behalf by Biden in May of last year and was accepted by Hamas in early July of last year. And the only — the primary missing element has been Israel’s agreement to this text. And the only reason that Israel did not agree to this text until this week is because it didn’t have to worry about U.S. pressure. What it, in fact, had was unconditional U.S. support and U.S. collusion.

And it’s quite clear that the only thing that has changed in the past month is that there was an unambiguous message from the incoming Trump team to Netanyahu that they do not want to have to deal with a Middle East — with a foreign policy crisis during the inauguration and on their first day in office. And they especially don’t want to deal with a crisis that includes American hostages in the Middle East. They want to be Ronald Reagan in 1981, not Jimmy Carter. And I think Netanyahu —

AMY GOODMAN: And explain what you mean by that, Mouin.

MOUIN RABBANI: Well, I’m referring to the Iranian hostage crisis, that is considered a large contributor to Jimmy Carter’s election loss in 1980, and that those American hostages were not released until after Carter had left the White House and Reagan had entered it. And Trump very clearly does not want to be a Carter; he wants to be a Reagan in this respect. Netanyahu understood the message loud and clear, and so he signed on the dotted line.

You know, we’ve had all this drama and theatrics of the past two days, that Gideon Levy was just talking about, but it was never in doubt, particularly because, I think, Netanyahu is now hoping that with Trump so narrowly focused on January 20th, that he’ll lose interest within a few weeks, and Netanyahu will then be able to scuttle the deal when it gets to when the first phase ends, because, as Gideon Levy mentioned, the second stage is still being negotiated and is yet to be finalized.

AMY GOODMAN: And talk about that second stage, though, what we understand and what Ben-Gvir and Smotrich — and also talk about their histories, and even with the Israeli government, them being gone after for, for example, terrorism. But if you can talk about what their objections are when it comes to the Israeli military in Gaza?

MOUIN RABBANI: Well, they share, in fact, Netanyahu’s objections. One of Netanyahu’s previous — so, again, we need to recall, this is not an American initiative. This is an initiative that, according to Biden, was formulated by Netanyahu and merely presented by the Americans. And what happened after it was presented and after it was accepted by Hamas in July, Netanyahu began adding new conditions, that Israel would have to retain a permanent presence in the so-called Netzarim Corridor bisecting the Gaza Strip, the so-called Philadelphi Corridor abutting the Egyptian border, and, most importantly, that there could be no formal end to hostilities. In other words, there would be no definitive ceasefire. So, it seems that Netanyahu’s expectation was that Hamas would sign an agreement that would oblige it to release all the Israeli captives and hostages, and then accept that once the last one was released, Israel could resume its genocidal campaign against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip — clearly a condition designed to be rejected.

Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are insisting that they cannot accept any deal that ends Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip. And what they’ve said is they are against this deal. Ben-Gvir will leave the government. They will vote against it. But they will continue to support Netanyahu against any no-confidence measures, and that if and when Netanyahu resumes this genocidal campaign, they will rejoin — they will rejoin the government. So, it’s really a very, very empty threat. I see it as pure theater.

AMY GOODMAN: This is President-elect Trump’s national security adviser nominee Mike Waltz in an interview with Fox & Friends Thursday following news that the prime minister, Netanyahu, was again delaying the vote to approve the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal.

MIKE WALTZ: No one has done more for Israel than President Trump. We will have their back to make sure Hamas never exists as a terrorist state and certainly does not govern Gaza.

AMY GOODMAN: Your response to that, Mouin Rabbani?

MOUIN RABBANI: Well, Israel has been at it for 15 months and still has a very long way to go. And if one assumes that it’s virtually impossible for the Trump administration to provide more and more unconditional support to Israel than Biden has, I’m not quite sure what he means by that.

Secondly, in terms of so-called postwar governance scenarios, because Hamas has survived, it will be impossible to impose any government or administration on the Gaza Strip that does not have the consent of Hamas. Hamas doesn’t need to be included in that and may well prefer not to be included, but it does require its consent. You know, and this is, I would say, a typical American politician making extravagant statements about what they’re about to achieve. But, you know, reality tends to bite pretty hard once these people get into office.

AMY GOODMAN: I want to turn to what happened at the State Department yesterday. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, with his farewell news conference, had two journalists forcibly removed from his final press briefing after they questioned him on the Biden administration’s policies in Gaza. This is the exchange between Blinken and Max Blumenthal, editor of The Grayzone.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: Three hundred reporters in Gaza were on the receiving end of your bombs. Why did you keep the bombs flowing when we had a deal in May?

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: So, I’m happy to address questions —

MAX BLUMENTHAL: We all knew we had a deal. Everyone in this room knows we had a deal, Tony, and you kept the bombs flowing. Why did you sacrifice —

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: I’m happy to address questions when we get a chance. Thank you.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: — the rules-based order on the mantle of your commitment to Zionism? Why did you allow my friends to be massacred? Why did you allow —

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: I’m happy to address, sir, your questions when we get to questions. Thank you.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: — my friends’ homes in Gaza to be destroyed when we had a deal in May?

AIDE: Sorry. I’m sorry. I’m going to have to ask you ask to leave.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: You —

AIDE: I’m sorry.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: You helped destroy our religion, Judaism —

AIDE: I’m sorry.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: — by associating it with fascism.

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: Yeah, I have a statement — yeah, I have a statement to make. Thank you.

AIDE: We’ll have the time to take questions.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: You waved the white flag before Netanyahu.

AIDE: We’ll have the time to take questions at the end.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: You waved the white flag before Israeli fascism.

AIDE: You’ll have the time to take questions at the end.

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: I look forward to taking questions when I get a chance to finish my statement. Thank you.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: Your father-in-law was an Israel lobbyist. Your grandfather was an Israel lobbyist. Are you compromised by Israel? Why did you allow the Holocaust of our time to happen?

AIDE: It’s time to go. Thanks very much.

MAX BLUMENTHAL: How does it feel to have your legacy be genocide? How does it feel to have your legacy be genocide? You, too, Matt, you smirked through the whole thing every day. You smirked through a genocide.

AMY GOODMAN: A few minutes later, the independent journalist Sam Husseini was also dragged out of the room as he shouted out.

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: Finally, I just wanted to share this morning —

SAM HUSSEINI: Get your hands off me! Get your hands off me! Get your hands off me! Get your hands off me! Answer a damn question!

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: I look forward to answering questions in a few minutes.

SAM HUSSEINI: Do you know about the Hannibal Directive? Do you know about Israel’s nuclear weapons? Everybody from the ICJ — I was sitting here quietly, and now I’m being manhandled by two or three people. You pontificate about a free press? You pontificate about a free press?

SECURITY GUARD 1: Please leave.

SAM HUSSEINI: You are hurting me!

SECURITY GUARD 2: Sir. Sir, please get up.

SAM HUSSEINI: You are hurting me! You are hurting me! I am asking questions after being told by Matt Miller that he will not answer my questions, and so I asked him questions.

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: Please, sir, respect the — respect the process.

SAM HUSSEINI: Wasn’t — wasn’t — wasn’t — wasn’t —

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: We’ll have an opportunity to take questions in a few minutes.

SAM HUSSEINI: Wasn’t the IC — wasn’t the point of the May 31st statement to block the ICJ orders? You blocked the ICJ orders. You —

SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: Please, sir, respect the process. Thank you.

SAM HUSSEINI: Oh, “respect the process.” Respect the process while everybody’s — everybody, from Amnesty International — from Amnesty International to the ICJ, is saying that Israel is doing genocide and extermination. You’re telling me to respect the process. Criminal! Why aren’t you in The Hague? Why aren’t you in The Hague? Why aren’t you in The Hague?

AMY GOODMAN: Journalist Sam Husseini was being taken out even before he asked a question. They had gathered around him as Max Blumenthal was taken out. Gideon Levy, if you can respond to journalists breaking the kind of consensus at the State Department and challenging Antony Blinken, the secretary of state?

GIDEON LEVY: I wish there would have been more. I wish there would have been journalists like this in Israel, which you hardly see.

Blinken is a typical American liberal, like the Yair Lapids and the Benny Gantzs and the Israeli Zionist leftists or the Israeli liberals. They have very clear borders to what should be said and what shouldn’t be said. They always say the right things and do exactly the opposite. Blinken cannot run, cannot break away from his accountability to what is happening in Gaza. Blinken and Biden, they say the most noble things about humanitarian aid, about the right of the Palestinians to live in peace and to have their own rights — beautiful things. In the same time, they financed, they armed this horrible weapon — this horrible war without putting any conditions on Israel. And they will be judged not according to their nice talkings, but according to their policy and their actions.

And their actions bleed only to one conclusion. What happened in Gaza, which is quite clear already that it is totally criminal, has two main responsible factors. One is obviously the Israeli leadership, and the second one is the American administration. And no beautiful talkings will release Blinken and Biden from their responsibility to 20,000, 30,000 killed children and babies and women, 50,000, 60,000, maybe 70,000 people killed in Gaza, total destruction by American weapons, which were delivered to Israel without putting any conditions to Israel. That’s the reality. And Max Blumenthal and others tried to call the bluff and tried to say the truth. And I’m very sorry that their voice is not legitimate.

AMY GOODMAN: Mouin Rabbani, your final comment on the ceasefire deal that’s being approved by the Israeli government as we speak, the hostage and ceasefire deal, at least for 42 days, what this means for the overall region?

MOUIN RABBANI: Well, it’s not a political agreement, and it’s certainly not one that addresses the underlying causes of the crisis that erupted in October of 2023. This is a very limited agreement to deal with a very specific issue, namely, a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and an Israeli-Palestinian exchange of captives and hostages. And it’s a very fragile one, precisely for the reasons enumerated by Gideon Levy, that I believe Netanyahu will do everything possible, with collusion of certain Trump officials, to try to scuttle it after the first phase. At the same time, I think the most that can be hoped for at this stage is a return to the U.S. policy of strategic neglect of the question of Palestine. But let’s recall, that’s what got us into this mess in the first place.

AMY GOODMAN: Mouin Rabbani, I want to thank you so much for being with us, Middle East analyst, co-editor of Jadaliyya, host of the Connections podcast, and Gideon Levy, award-winning Israeli journalist and member of the editorial board of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, speaking to us from Tel Aviv.

Coming up, Trump’s billionaire inauguration. Stay with us.