What Comes Next for Gaza After the Killing of Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar?

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Struggle and Solidarity: Writing Toward Palestinian Liberation

Israeli forces killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in combat on October 17, briefly raising questions about the next phase of Israel’s war on Gaza. Though Israel has long claimed Sinwar as one of the most high-profile targets of its military campaign, there is still no end in sight to the war after 13 months of carnage and mass death. The death of Sinwar, who is widely considered the architect of the October 7 attacks that sparked Israel’s bloody revenge campaign, may only be an inflection point in a larger genocidal process of making Gaza unlivable for Palestinians.

Sinwar’s death came after what some journalists in Gaza called “the most difficult days” of Israel’s war. Israeli human rights groups warned earlier this week that the military is quietly implementing parts of the so-called “Generals’ Plan,” which calls for forcibly displacing the estimated 400,000 civilians in northern Gaza by besieging and starving the population — and then attacking those who refuse to leave. Media reports quoted Israeli soldiers on the ground who made similar claims suggesting that deliberate ethnic cleansing is underway, even if the Generals’ Plan is not official policy.

Humanitarian aid groups say northern Gaza is being “wiped off the map,” with hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped as bombs fall on their homes, tents and shelters. Israel has issued broad “evacuation orders” for civilians in northern Gaza to evacuate, but many have already been displaced or are trapped in besieged areas.

Nowhere is safe. Dozens of civilians in the area were killed in airstrikes since October 1, when Israel cut off deliveries of food and launched a devastating ground and air offensive after demanding evacuations, effectively declaring all of northern Gaza a militarized zone.

Civilians are reportedly trapped in the besieged Jabalia refugee camp. Doctors at the overwhelmed al-Awda Hospital have told the Israeli military they cannot evacuate as they tend to the wounded and dying, while massacres continue on a daily basis. On Thursday, another airstrike on a school in the Jabalia camp claimed the lives of at least 28 civilians and injured 106 others. Israel said it was targeting militants, but Hind Khoudary, a journalist in Gaza, said Jabalia is being “wiped out.”

“Relentless Israeli airstrikes have killed hundreds of Palestinians, including children, with entire families erased. Civilians, trapped under the rubble, have no safe place to go,” Khoudary wrote on social media Thursday.

In a statement earlier in the week, 38 international aid groups said the assault on northern Gaza has escalated to a “horrifying level of atrocity…. This is not an evacuation — this is forced displacement under gunfire.”

Israel’s forcible displacement in northern Gaza and its refusal to allow adequate aid to enter the territory are illegal under international law, the groups said, as is any attempt to shrink Gaza’s borders and seize more Palestinian territory. Civilians also must not be forced to choose between staying in their homes and receiving humanitarian aid.

Meanwhile, several members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing political party, Likud, are reportedly planning to attend a conference on October 21, where Israeli religious activists will discuss plans for colonizing Gaza by establishing new homes for extremist Jewish settlers. Israel previously evacuated illegal settlements from Gaza in 2005.

For decades, the expansion of illegal Jewish-only settlements has allowed Israel to slowly annex parts of the West Bank and push Palestinians off their land in violation of international law. The annexation of the West Bank is a top priority for Jewish supremacist ministers propping up Netanyahu and his far right government. Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s extremist national security minister, has called for illegal settlements in Gaza during the course of the war.

It was amid these conditions that Israeli troops reportedly found Sinwar’s body in the rubble after fighting in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip. Israeli officials confirmed his identity on Thursday after running forensic tests, according to reports. Hamas confirmed his death on Friday, and details are still emerging.

Israeli authorities released a drone-shot video on Thursday, purportedly showing Sinwar badly injured by combat, lying in the ruins of a building. In what could be read as a final act of defiance, he threw a stick at the drone tracking him.

After announcing Sinwar’s death, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday Israeli troops will continue fighting until the remaining October 7 hostages are recovered and Hamas is defeated, potentially setting the stage of a long-term military occupation of Gaza. Analysts say Hamas may still appoint a new leader in Gaza and continue fighting as it has after past killings of their leaders.

Khaled Elgindy, director of Palestinian-Israeli affairs at the Middle East Institute, said the death of Sinwar could give Israeli leaders the chance to declare victory in Gaza and push for a ceasefire and hostage swap after months of failed negotiations with Hamas. However, Netanyahu is unlikely to accept a ceasefire until he achieves his political goals.

“It is more likely that Netanyahu will see Sinwar’s death as an opportunity to ‘finish the job’ and press ahead of pursuit of ‘total victory,’” Elgindy said in a statement. “Whether or not Sinwar’s death can be leverage to bring forth a ceasefire largely depends on the Biden administration, and whether it is actually prepared to bring meaningful public pressure on the Netanyahu government.”

Indeed, observers say the intense violence and displacement in Gaza is in Netanyahu’s political interest. Without support from extremists in his cabinet such as Ben-Gvir, the prime minister’s governing coalition could fall apart. Once out of office, Netanyahu could face corruption charges in court.

Despite reports of verbal scolding from President Joe Biden and his diplomats, the United States has continued to transfer weapons to Israel as it commits suspected war crimes, including the targeting of civilians and the forced displacement of huge swaths of Gaza’s population. This has become a domestic political problem for Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, which is losing support from Muslim and antiwar voters in Michigan and other key swing states.

Calls on Biden to stop arms transfers to Israel to prevent mass starvation and civilian causalities in Gaza, or at least place conditions on weapons transfers in line with U.S. humanitarian law, reached a fever pitch over recent weeks as Israel blocked aid to northern Gaza and began pummeling the area.

Earlier this week, a letter to Israeli leaders signed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was leaked to the press. Dated October 13, the letter complained that humanitarian aid to Gaza had dropped 50 percent since Israel promised to allow more into the destroyed territory back in March. The letter demands that Israel ease restrictions on aid within 30 days or face unspecified policy “implications” under U.S. policies governing international weapons transfers and humanitarian assistance.

The letter was initially interpreted by some media as the Biden administration finally threatening to condition military aid to Israel in order to improve the situation for civilians in Gaza. However, during a press briefing on Wednesday, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller was unable to specify what portion of U.S. military aid to Israel could potentially be on the chopping block in 30 days, if any at all.

The 30-day window also raised questions about the seriousness of the letter, which does not demand immediate action to address deep human suffering and postpones potential consequences until after the U.S. elections in November.

Israel allowed a trickle of trucks carrying aid into northern Gaza after the letter leaked, but humanitarian groups said it was not nearly enough to meet desperate needs on the ground. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said on Wednesday that a “policy of starvation” is unacceptable in Gaza, and the U.S. would be watching closely to make sure that Israel allows more aid into the Strip.

Mohamad Elmasry, professor of media studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, argued in an op-ed in Al Jazeera that the letter to Israel from Biden officials is just a “distraction.” The U.S. is Israel’s top ally and weapons supplier, but Israel has repeatedly ignored Washington’s public suggestions for restraint since the war on Gaza began, and the Biden administration has not taken any notable actions in response, the op-ed argues.

“Read in this light, the letter appears to be a last-ditch attempt to salvage the election,” Elmasry wrote. “Harris may now be lamenting her public censuring of pro-Palestinian Americans as well as the decision to not allow a Palestinian speaker to take the main stage at the Democratic National Convention in August.”

Elmasry also argued that the letter may be part of a broader effort by the Biden administration to avoid being accused of complicity in genocide on the international stage. Now that the “Generals’ Plan” for forced displacement and deliberate starvation appears to be underway in northern Gaza, the Biden administration is running out of excuses for what UN experts call Israel’s “genocidal” behavior.