The weak establishment data is consistent with the high weekly unemployment claims.
For the second consecutive month, the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage points, despite the weak job growth reported in the establishment survey. The establishment survey showed a gain of just 36,000 jobs in January, following a revised gain of 121,000 jobs in December. The big gainers in January were white men, who saw their unemployment rate fall by 0.6 percentage points for the second consecutive month; although at 7.9 percent it is still somewhat higher than the 7.0 percent rate for white women, which is a decrease of 0.3 percentage points since December. The unemployment rate for Hispanics also fell by 0.6 percentage points to 11.9 percent. The latest data from the employment-to-population ratio for men is still 7.7 percentage points below its peak in 2000, while the EPOP for women is down by 3.6 percentage points. There was little change in the employment situation of blacks. Their overall unemployment rate of 15.7 percent remains near the peak for the downturn, as does the 45.4 percent unemployment rate for black teens.
By educational attainment, the biggest gainers were college graduates who saw a 0.6 percentage-point drop in their unemployment rate to 4.2 percent. The unemployment rate for college grads has fallen from 5.1 percent to 4.2 percent in two months, a decline of 17.6 percent. The unemployment rate for people without high school degrees fell by 1.1 percent in January, but this was associated with a 0.3 percentage point drop in their EPOP.
There were also 524,000 people involuntarily working part-time. This figure is down by 1.1 million from its September level.
Month-to-month comparisons are made difficult by the change in the population controls in the household survey. With the change in controls, employment rose by 117,000; however, the gain would have been 589,000 had it not been for the change. While this is a large difference with the 36,000 job gain shown in the establishment data, such discrepancies are not uncommon, especially in the month of January.
In January of 1992, 1994, and 1997, the household survey showed gains in employment (not counting any population control effects) of 512,000, 502,000, and 438,000, respectively. These gains exceeded the gains reported in the establishment survey by 463,000, 234,000, and 235,000, respectively. In January of 2000, the employment gain (adjusted for the change in controls) was 784,000, or 535,000 more than the gain shown by the establishment survey.
Get Truthout in your inbox every day! Click here to sign up for free updates.
The numbers in the surveys tend to converge over time. The household survey had been showing slower employment growth than the establishment survey. The increase in employment since January 2010, adjusted for the change in controls, is 1,284,000. This compares to a gain of 984,000 jobs in the establishment survey.
The picture in the establishment survey is mostly quite bleak. The average rate of job creation over the last three months has been just 87,000, a rate that is not enough fast enough to keep pace with the growth of the labor force. Furthermore, there is no sector showing especially strong growth.
Retail added 27,500 jobs, but this followed two months where it had lost 12,800. Healthcare added just 10,600 jobs, less than half its average over the last year. Restaurants reduced employment by 4,400 in January. State and local government reduced employment by 12,000, and construction employment fell by another 32,000. Finance lost 10,000 jobs. There was an anomalous loss of 44,8000 courier jobs, but this reversed a jump of roughly the same size in December. The one notable bright spot was manufacturing, which added 49,000 jobs, which seem to be centered on the auto industry.
There is little evidence that employers are about to pick up the pace of hiring. Jobs in the temp sector increased by just 13,200 after rising at an average rate of 31,500 in the prior three months. Average weekly hours actually fell slightly from 34.3 to 34.2 hours. And wage growth remains very weak with the average hour wage increasing at just 1.54 percent annual rate over the last quarter, down from a 1.96 percent rate over the last year.
CEPR’s Jobs Byte is published each month upon release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report.
We’re not backing down in the face of Trump’s threats.
As Donald Trump is inaugurated a second time, independent media organizations are faced with urgent mandates: Tell the truth more loudly than ever before. Do that work even as our standard modes of distribution (such as social media platforms) are being manipulated and curtailed by forces of fascist repression and ruthless capitalism. Do that work even as journalism and journalists face targeted attacks, including from the government itself. And do that work in community, never forgetting that we’re not shouting into a faceless void – we’re reaching out to real people amid a life-threatening political climate.
Our task is formidable, and it requires us to ground ourselves in our principles, remind ourselves of our utility, dig in and commit.
As a dizzying number of corporate news organizations – either through need or greed – rush to implement new ways to further monetize their content, and others acquiesce to Trump’s wishes, now is a time for movement media-makers to double down on community-first models.
At Truthout, we are reaffirming our commitments on this front: We won’t run ads or have a paywall because we believe that everyone should have access to information, and that access should exist without barriers and free of distractions from craven corporate interests. We recognize the implications for democracy when information-seekers click a link only to find the article trapped behind a paywall or buried on a page with dozens of invasive ads. The laws of capitalism dictate an unending increase in monetization, and much of the media simply follows those laws. Truthout and many of our peers are dedicating ourselves to following other paths – a commitment which feels vital in a moment when corporations are evermore overtly embedded in government.
Over 80 percent of Truthout‘s funding comes from small individual donations from our community of readers, and the remaining 20 percent comes from a handful of social justice-oriented foundations. Over a third of our total budget is supported by recurring monthly donors, many of whom give because they want to help us keep Truthout barrier-free for everyone.
You can help by giving today. Whether you can make a small monthly donation or a larger gift, Truthout only works with your support.