Economists are warning of a looming recession as the Trump administration faces a spiraling housing crisis that is currently leaving millions of low-wage workers, seniors and people with disabilities vulnerable to homelessness.
Next to inflation, Americans rank the cost of housing as their top financial concern. The nation faces a shortage of nearly 7 million affordable housing units, and home prices have reached historic highs relative to incomes. Foreclosures on homeowners are increasing, minimum wage remains rock-bottom in red states, and the cost of paying rent for a place to live continues to be a key driver of inflation, according to the February Consumer Price Index (CPI).
“Shelter continues to account for more than a third of CPI, and the rent inflation measure within the CPI is up, so rents continue to rise,” said Tara Raghuveer, director of the Tenant Union Federation, a coalition of tenant unions, in an interview. “We’re in a moment of a lot of economic instability, and for poor and working-class families, what that looks like is they weren’t able to pay the rent.”
Of course, much of the current economic instability can be traced back to Trump’s tariffs, both real and threatened, against U.S. trading partners. Economists and manufacturers are warning that up to 100,000 workers could lose jobs.
Even Trump and his allies have acknowledged they could be causing economic pain with this shoot-from-the-hip agenda. Combined with the housing crisis, this pain will be felt acutely by vulnerable people living on fixed and lower incomes and already struggling to make rent and mortgage payments.
It’s not difficult to imagine the potential consequences of Trump’s risks with the U.S. economy at a time when some employed workers are already forced to live in their cars because rent is too expensive. In 2024, even as the U.S. post-pandemic economic recovery far outpaced the recovery of other wealthy countries, the number of people who fell into homelessness spiked by 18 percent due in part to a chronic shortage of affordable housing.
“We have a yearslong trend where shelter and rent inflation are a huge point of stress both for individual families and the economy at large,” Raghuveer said, adding that tenants are reaching a breaking point.
Indeed, there currently is no state in the entire country where a renter working full-time for minimum wage can afford a modest two-bedroom apartment, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition.
According to organizations that support people experiencing homelessness, helping people reaccess stable housing after being evicted is much more expensive and complicated than keeping vulnerable people in their homes to begin with. With no relief on the horizon, the homelessness crisis is only expected to intensify under Trump, regardless of his policies on trade or spending.
“Trump does not have a housing plan, period,” Raghuveer said. “He clearly does not have a plan on the economy. He is operating purely based on vibes, and the vibes, by the way, are bad. Sooner than later, it’s going to come crashing down on him and his team.”
But in addition to his trade policies, Trump’s spending cuts threaten to exacerbate the housing crisis as well. In fact, Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funding earmarked for sustaining affordable housing and homelessness programs already faces cuts by the proverbial chainsaw Trump and his appointees are taking to federal agencies — without the consent of Congress.
“Trump’s cuts are starting to impact housing programs and homelessness programs, so there are even more stressors coming to the American people beyond higher prices and rent inflation,” Raghuveer said. “And this is of course just the housing cuts in addition to all the ongoing threats of cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, etc. that will very likely push poor and working-class Americans to the brink at some point very soon.”
After winning office on promises of a booming economy and an end to the affordability crisis, Trump has made grand but vague pronouncements on housing. Trump has suggested leasing federal lands to private developers for home construction, an idea with bipartisan support already pursued by the Biden administration. This idea appeared to blend with Elon Musk’s techno-fascist ambitions when Trump talked about building “freedom cities” with “flying cars” on the campaign trail in 2023.
Trump has also suggested that his plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants would put a dent in the affordable housing shortage — a claim that both housing and immigration advocates say is untrue. In fact, a wide range of critics say it would backfire, as immigration officials could target workers the construction industry relies on to expand the housing stock. Trump and other Republicans also argue their deregulatory agenda will spur housing construction, which is badly needed, but even if this gambit is successful, it would take years for the benefits to materialize in the housing market and there is no indication or guarantee that such housing would be affordable.
“Deportation is not a housing plan,” Raghuveer said. “These are gestures towards a plan, they are completely ineffective, and they are irrelevant relative to the problem at hand. The rent is too damn high, and Trump does not have a plan.”
The real-world action the Trump administration has taken so far is even less encouraging. Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” is pushing for drastic funding cuts to multiple HUD programs, including assistance for struggling renters and the enforcement of fair housing laws. The cuts would mean that “fewer people who struggle to keep a roof over their heads will get the help they need,” according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Last week, the Associated Press reported on plans to cut $1 billion from a HUD program that funds renovations at affordable housing complexes that house tens of thousands of people, including seniors and people with disabilities living on fixed incomes. Raghuveer said repairs are badly needed at many aging apartment buildings that house lower-income tenants, and grants funded by the HUD prevent owners from selling to developers who would transform affordable properties into expensive lofts and condos.
“The developers and owners will tell you that they rely on this type of funding, and if this funding ceases to exist, they don’t have any incentive to provide housing for low-income renters,” Raghuveer said.
As a national tenant union organizer, Raghuveer sees the housing crisis as nearing a point of no return for those at the bottom of the income scale, regardless of where they live. With TikTok users posting viral videos about sleeping in cars before going to work, and rent still driving inflation in communities nationwide, Republicans can no longer afford to paint housing and homelessness as problems limited to Democrat-run big cities.
“People can’t survive, people don’t have any place to go,” Raghuveer said. “And there has to be a way out, whether that is going to come through public policy, which I doubt, or whether that it is going to come through organized disobedience, which is more likely.”
After all, before he became a demagogue and politician, Trump inherited his father’s business as a real estate tycoon and notoriously difficult landlord. Raghuveer pointed out that the price of rent is not set by the quality of the homes or apartments people lease from landlords, but by what the market will allow profiteers like Trump to get away with.
“Trump benefits from high rent, but politically, Trump has a lot to lose,” Raghuveer said. “If we understand what happened in November as a story of incumbency and economic pain, those are Trump’s problems in a couple of years.”
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