The recently released gross domestic product report in the United States was seriously impressive – a 5 percent growth rate, and it’s all final demand rather than an inventory bounce. But what does it all mean?
It does not necessarily mean that now is the time to tighten; that depends mainly on how far we still are from target employment and inflation, not on how fast we’re growing. Remember, the American economy grew by 10 percent in 1934, which didn’t mean that the Depression was anywhere near over.
What the report should do, however, is further discredit the “Ma, he’s looking at me funny!” theory of the Obama economy. We were supposed to be having the worst recovery ever because President Obama was a Kenyan socialist who scared businessmen. Actually, we’re having a better recovery than the alleged Bush boom.
Of course, you can count on hearing, any minute now, from people claiming that the numbers are cooked – that we really have plunging output and double-digit inflation, and they’re stealing our precious bodily fluids.
Recession, Recovery and Gold
Bloomberg reporter Dave Weigel recently noted in an article that when Mr. Obama got re-elected in 2012, the usual suspects told us to run for the hills and to buy gold along the way, because Zimbabwe!
Or, actually, not. Gold prices are down a lot.
Still, it’s important to understand why they were high in the first place. Gold is not a hedge against inflation. It’s something people buy when real returns on alternative assets are low.
The price of gold went up as real interest rates turned negative, thanks to a depressed economy in the United States – an economy, by the way, that was prone to deflation, not inflation.
And as the recovery has gathered strength, real rates have gone up and the price of gold has gone down.
So the Obama recovery has both dashed the right wing’s hopes for catastrophe and dealt a body blow to its favorite investment.
Help us Prepare for Trump’s Day One
Trump is busy getting ready for Day One of his presidency – but so is Truthout.
Trump has made it no secret that he is planning a demolition-style attack on both specific communities and democracy as a whole, beginning on his first day in office. With over 25 executive orders and directives queued up for January 20, he’s promised to “launch the largest deportation program in American history,” roll back anti-discrimination protections for transgender students, and implement a “drill, drill, drill” approach to ramp up oil and gas extraction.
Organizations like Truthout are also being threatened by legislation like HR 9495, the “nonprofit killer bill” that would allow the Treasury Secretary to declare any nonprofit a “terrorist-supporting organization” and strip its tax-exempt status without due process. Progressive media like Truthout that has courageously focused on reporting on Israel’s genocide in Gaza are in the bill’s crosshairs.
As journalists, we have a responsibility to look at hard realities and communicate them to you. We hope that you, like us, can use this information to prepare for what’s to come.
And if you feel uncertain about what to do in the face of a second Trump administration, we invite you to be an indispensable part of Truthout’s preparations.
In addition to covering the widespread onslaught of draconian policy, we’re shoring up our resources for what might come next for progressive media: bad-faith lawsuits from far-right ghouls, legislation that seeks to strip us of our ability to receive tax-deductible donations, and further throttling of our reach on social media platforms owned by Trump’s sycophants.
We’re preparing right now for Trump’s Day One: building a brave coalition of movement media; reaching out to the activists, academics, and thinkers we trust to shine a light on the inner workings of authoritarianism; and planning to use journalism as a tool to equip movements to protect the people, lands, and principles most vulnerable to Trump’s destruction.
We urgently need your help to prepare. As you know, our December fundraiser is our most important of the year and will determine the scale of work we’ll be able to do in 2025. We’ve set two goals: to raise $115,000 in one-time donations and to add 1365 new monthly donors by midnight on December 31.
Today, we’re asking all of our readers to start a monthly donation or make a one-time donation – as a commitment to stand with us on day one of Trump’s presidency, and every day after that, as we produce journalism that combats authoritarianism, censorship, injustice, and misinformation. You’re an essential part of our future – please join the movement by making a tax-deductible donation today.
If you have the means to make a substantial gift, please dig deep during this critical time!
With gratitude and resolve,
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