“The new long-term budget projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show once again that the major problem facing the both the budget and the larger economy is out-of-control health care costs, not any inherent fiscal crisis. As was the case last year, the CBO baseline shows that the long-term debt to GDP ratio levels off in the baseline scenario. In the 2011 projections, the ratio of debt to GDP actually begins to decline after the early 2040s. The graph shows the sharp drop in future deficit projections following the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) in March of 2010.
“As CBO has pointed out, the baseline projection may be unrealistic since it includes a number of assumptions about policy, such as Congress adhering to the spending caps put into law in the PPACA last year. While no one can know what future Congresses will do, the CBO baseline does show clearly that if health care costs are constrained, as they would be if Congress does not change the law, then there is no real long-term deficit problem. Even with the aging of the population raising the cost of both Social Security and Medicare, the debt to GDP ratio would be on a declining path.
“It is also worth noting that the CBO has clearly indicated that the public sector offers the more promising route for containing health care costs. Its projections of the Medicare voucher plan proposed by Representative Ryan and approved by the House of Representatives show that the plan would raise the cost of providing Medicare-equivalent plans by $34 trillion over the program’s 75-year planning period.
“It is unfortunate that most of the policy community insists on focusing on the deficit and ignoring the fact that the health care system is both the country’s major long-term fiscal problem and economic problem. This is the same sort of momentous mistake as was ignoring the $8 trillion housing bubble that caused the recession as it grew to ever more dangerous levels.”
Help us Prepare for Trump’s Day One
Trump is busy getting ready for Day One of his presidency – but so is Truthout.
Trump has made it no secret that he is planning a demolition-style attack on both specific communities and democracy as a whole, beginning on his first day in office. With over 25 executive orders and directives queued up for January 20, he’s promised to “launch the largest deportation program in American history,” roll back anti-discrimination protections for transgender students, and implement a “drill, drill, drill” approach to ramp up oil and gas extraction.
Organizations like Truthout are also being threatened by legislation like HR 9495, the “nonprofit killer bill” that would allow the Treasury Secretary to declare any nonprofit a “terrorist-supporting organization” and strip its tax-exempt status without due process. Progressive media like Truthout that has courageously focused on reporting on Israel’s genocide in Gaza are in the bill’s crosshairs.
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In addition to covering the widespread onslaught of draconian policy, we’re shoring up our resources for what might come next for progressive media: bad-faith lawsuits from far-right ghouls, legislation that seeks to strip us of our ability to receive tax-deductible donations, and further throttling of our reach on social media platforms owned by Trump’s sycophants.
We’re preparing right now for Trump’s Day One: building a brave coalition of movement media; reaching out to the activists, academics, and thinkers we trust to shine a light on the inner workings of authoritarianism; and planning to use journalism as a tool to equip movements to protect the people, lands, and principles most vulnerable to Trump’s destruction.
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