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As the U.S. slowly continues its brokered negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and ballistic missiles, it is also expanding its military posture across the Middle East — amounting to the biggest military buildup in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. took place in Geneva on February 17 with little progress and plenty of details left to discuss. According to U.S. officials, the Islamic Republic offered to come back within two weeks with a proposal which addresses some core issues and gaps in the positions by both parties. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s actions play a different tune. On February 19, Trump announced he would give Iran 10 to 15 days to reach a deal, otherwise the U.S. claims to be fully prepared to take military action, the consequences of which could lead to a regional catastrophe. The next talks are set to take place on February 26.
Ahead of those talks, Donald Trump has deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, which is set to join the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea. The United States has also significantly increased air power in the Middle East; according to open-source intelligence analysts and flight-tracking data, over 120 U.S. aircraft have deployed to the region. With each warship it repositions, each military personnel it places on alert, and all of the air power it has amassed in the region, the U.S. sends a message that diplomacy may no longer be on the table.
Both U.S. officials and international partners have voiced concern over the likelihood of a war with Iran. The United Kingdom has reportedly said that the United States would not be allowed to use British airbases, including Diego Garcia and Royal Air Force Fairford, for strikes against Iran, citing concerns that such action would violate international law.
Meanwhile, in Congress, Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie and California Democrat Ro Khanna have joined forces again to push a war powers resolution. The 1973 War Powers Act grants Congress the authority to check President Trump’s ability and power to enter an armed conflict without legislative approval.
However, with both the House and the Senate under Republican control, the chances of the Iran War Powers Resolution passing remain slim. Senate Republicans Tom Cotton and Lindsey Graham and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have all been proponents of striking Iran. While Rubio and Cotton have expressed desire to strike Iran’s nuclear sites in the past, Lindsey Graham has emerged as the strongest MAGA cheerleader for a war with Iran — so much so that he has been urging Trump to ignore the call from his advisors not to strike.
On the other side of the aisle, Democratic lawmakers, Reps. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey and Rep. Jared Evan Moskowitz of Florida have both expressed their concerns with the Iran War Powers Resolution, saying that it would limit United States military flexibility against Iran. While the U.S. public is overwhelmingly opposed to a war with Iran, a recent poll conducted in January revealed that 50 percent of Trump voters back military “intervention” in Iran over any other foreign target, including Greenland, Cuba, Colombia, China, and Mexico. That number rose to 61 percent among self-described “MAGA Republicans.”
A military strike on Iran would not be a one-off event, but a catastrophic rupture in the region. Iran is not some isolated target on a map. It is a nation of 90 million-plus people with populated cities, hospitals, universities, and families who have suffered repression for over 47 years under the current regime and sanctions that have destroyed Iran’s economy. Infrastructure damages alone from a war would cascade into loss of electricity, water shortages, and severe impacts to medical care.
During the 12-day war, Israeli forces launched explosive weapons that damaged a children’s facility as well as a number of hospitals, health centers, and emergency health buildings, including Farabi hospital in Kermanshah city. Furthermore, the conflict damaged critical aging water pipes in Tehran and other provinces.
It is difficult to imagine what a regional war would do to a population already exhausted by decades of loss, but one thing that is clear is that a war with Iran will permanently scar those who survive it.
Iranians living inside the country have become accustomed to harsh repression over nearly half a century. Every bit of hope for reform and every popular uprising has been crushed and silenced by violent crackdowns from the Iranian state. At the same time, opportunistic neocons, influenced by the United States’s biggest ally in the region, Israel, have sought to co-opt the uprisings. They encourage unrest and issue calls of support for Iranian protestors, while at the same time backing hawkish U.S. policies and pushing lawmakers to take a tougher stance toward Iran. This will only create more repression for Iranians seeking freedoms and human rights and drive the country further into chaos.
At the same time, unilateral sanctions imposed during the first Trump administration have hollowed out the economy, driving the rial to record lows against the dollar in Tehran and turning everyday necessities like food, fuel, and medicine into luxuries families can no longer afford. Iranians overseas with families living in Iran can no longer financially help their loved ones due to sanctions and financial restrictions. It is difficult to imagine what a regional war would do to a population already exhausted by decades of loss, but one thing that is clear is that a war with Iran will permanently scar those who survive it.
A war with Iran will not stop at its borders and will not remain where it is aimed. Such impulsive and reckless military actions never do. The Middle East is an ecosystem of lives, alliances, and fragile balances that will draw in neighboring countries and global powers.
And while the momentum towards a war with Iran accelerates, we must be reminded of the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan in 2001, which accomplished little outside the brutalization of one of the most economically starved countries on earth. Similarly, we must remember the collapse of Iraq’s infrastructure and civil society alongside the imposition of a farcical democracy after the 2003 invasion — a collapse that was fueled in part by years of devastating sanctions that predated the invasion. And, of course, we cannot forget the recent commando abduction and leadership change in Venezuela, which was openly explained by Trump himself as a blatant oil grab. Often, outside powers and hegemonic nations decide what is in the best interest of another nation’s people. They intervene using military force and, when they fail, leave a vacuum of leadership instability and suffering among the general public.
The urgent push toward a military confrontation with Iran may also be shaped in part by domestic unrest in the United States. With an all-time low approval rating, the Trump administration has been pushing attention away from the growing body of evidence emerging from the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. After publicly encouraging Iranians to take to the streets, promising his administration’s full backing and support, Trump may have also backed himself into a corner, one he has been ushered toward thanks to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been pushing for a war with Iran for decades.
Some argue that now, while the Iranian state might seem particularly vulnerable, is the time to strike. This approach overlooks the reality that Iran is deeply embedded in a global power alliance that includes Russia and China, meaning any attempt at forced regime change would not occur in isolation.
In response to the United States military buildup in the region, Iran and Russia have carried out joint military drills, conducting rescue operations and deploying missile-launching warships, special operations teams, helicopters, and at least one Iranian destroyer. Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow have carried out joint exercises for several years, but the latest military exercise was in direct response to U.S. military pressure. In addition to joint drills, Iran has briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz, which is the waterway separating Oman and Iran and is crucial for transporting global oil supplies in the region.
Rather than a one-off strike or a clean operation, a war with Iran would almost certainly widen conflict in the region and produce consequences far beyond what could be intended or repaired.
This is why the War Powers Resolution exists, not as a symbolic gesture but as a bulwark to slow the rush towards catastrophe. The framers of the Constitution understood what modern politicians seem to ignore: that war is too consequential to be left in the hands of one person, one branch of the government, or an executive order. The power to start a war with another country was placed in the hands of Congress to ensure transparency, force dialogue, and demand accountability.
If Congress fails to take action now, before Trump strikes the first town, before the first city loses power and water, before a mother loses a child, then the promise of democratic restraint becomes hollow and meaningless.
Even though some Iranians may hope for war as the means to collapse a regime that has trapped them for decades, Iran is not a single voice. Iran is a country of over 90 million people who want their basic needs to be met, and even in their desperation no foreign intervention or strike could deliver the revolution they hoped for. History has shown time and time again that wars imposed from without will destroy hospitals, schools, and other vital infrastructure before the bombs ever reach those in power.
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