Study Finds Gaza Death Toll Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Official Count

The death toll of Israel’s genocide in Gaza is likely far higher than reported by health officials, by a margin of tens of thousands of deaths, researchers from a top research university have found in a new study published online on Thursday.

In the first eight months of Israel’s slaughter, the official toll underreported deaths by 41 percent, the group of London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine researchers estimated. The peer-reviewed article was published in The Lancet, one of the world’s leading scientific journals and the top journal for medical research.

As of June 30, 2024, the Gaza Ministry of Health reported 37,877 deaths from Israel’s slaughter, primarily deaths due to traumatic injury — meaning killings from direct attacks like bombings or shootings. The study found, however, that there were likely 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury in that time, meaning that over 26,000 weren’t reflected in the official count.

“Assuming that the level of under-reporting of 41 percent continued from July to October, 2024, it is plausible that the true figure now exceeds 70,000,” the study says.

Gaza health officials rely mostly on information reported through health facilities like hospitals to tally deaths. In order to provide a more comprehensive tally of deaths, the researchers also tallied deaths from social media and obituary reports, as well as those reported on a survey disseminated by the Gaza Ministry of Health. They then cross-referenced those deaths with other sources to eliminate people whose names may have shown up multiple times across the platforms.

Women, children and the elderly accounted for 59 percent of the deaths for which they had age and sex data, the researchers found. Children specifically accounted for a third (33 percent) of deaths.

“The UN’s Human Rights Office has already condemned the high number of civilians killed in the war in Gaza, and our findings suggest that the traumatic injury death toll is underreported by around 41 percent,” said Zeina Jamaluddine, the study’s lead author. “These results underscore the urgent need for interventions to safeguard civilians and prevent further loss of life.”

The study also acknowledged that this death toll does not fully account for the impact of Israel’s violence in Gaza.

“Our findings underestimate the full impact of the military operation in Gaza, as they do not account for non-trauma-related deaths resulting from health service disruption, food insecurity, and inadequate water and sanitation,” the study said.

The group cited another research project done by some of the coauthors and other researchers from the U.S. that projected deaths from diseases and epidemics in Gaza between February and August of 2024. That project estimated over 17,000 deaths from disease in that time frame.

Other researchers and experts have long noted that deaths from causes like starvation and other outcomes of Israel’s near-total aid blockade are significant, but difficult to accurately project.

Since the study period, it has become even more difficult for Gaza officials to count deaths as Israel has systematically attacked and dismantled hospitals across the region and caused communications blackouts; the study recognizes that these attacks have “severely disrupted [health care facilities’] ability to record deaths electronically.”

The health care catastrophe and Israeli attacks have especially escalated in recent weeks, as Israel attacked and shuttered all three hospitals left in northern Gaza and its fuel blockade is threatening to shutter all remaining operational hospitals in the Strip.