Democrats could drive support in key swing states this fall if Vice President Kamala Harris calls for an end to weapons transfers to Israel amid its genocide in Gaza, new polling finds even as the Biden administration doubles down on its military support of Israel.
The latest Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project/YouGov poll released Wednesday finds that large proportions of voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona say that they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate in November if the candidate came out for an arms embargo on Israel — and that, by contrast, there is essentially no risk of losing voters if they did so.
The polling of nearly 1,500 likely Democratic and independent voters found that 34 percent said they would be more likely to vote for the nominee if they pledged to withhold weapons to Israel, while only 7 percent said they’d be less likely.
Young voters, a key demographic for Democrats, are the most supportive of the call to end the military support for Israel, with 60 percent of those aged 18 to 29 saying they’d be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if they made that vow, versus only 7 percent who said the opposite.
Support jumps among those who say they are undecided in this election, with a whopping 57 percent saying they’re more likely to back the nominee if they make the pledge, with zero percent saying that they would be less likely to vote for them. This margin is the most prominent in Pennsylvania — one of the most important states in the presidential election, with 19 electoral votes.
By contrast, if the nominee were to continue President Joe Biden’s policy of nearly unconditional support of Israel, 60 percent of undecided voters say they would be less likely to vote for the nominee, while 24 percent of respondents overall agreed that it would negatively sway their opinion. Only 6 percent of all respondents said they’d be more likely to vote for the nominee if they continued Biden’s policies.
The polling sends a clear message to the Harris campaign that they can boost their chances of winning the election this fall if Harris pivots away from the Biden administration’s stance on Gaza. It is the same message that anti-Zionist activists have been attempting to convey to Democrats for months as the Biden administration has given Israel a near carte blanche on its ability to carry out a campaign of extermination in Gaza.
However, the polling finds that support for Palestinian rights among these voters goes even further than the situation of Israel’s genocide in Gaza.
Forty percent of respondents also said that they would be more likely than not to vote for the Democratic nominee if they supported ending Israel’s military occupation of Gaza and the West Bank, while 41 percent said the same if the nominee called for an end to Israel’s apartheid. This stands in stark contrast to the roughly 5 percent who said they’d be less likely to choose the Democratic nominee in those circumstances.
“This polling clearly shows that if the Democrats want Vice President Harris to be the strongest nominee possible going into November, then they should be demanding that President Biden stop the flow of weapons to Israel and secure a permanent ceasefire immediately,” said IMEU Policy Project Executive Director Margaret DeReus in a statement.
“Not only are these policies popular, but they actually move voters from the ‘undecided’ or ‘not voting’ column and into the Democrats’ column in the states Democrats will need to win,” DeReus went on.
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