On Tuesday, North Carolina’s Republican-led state legislature got closer to approving new congressional district lines, part of a nationwide scheme by Republicans and President Donald Trump’s political team to stop Democrats from potentially gaining control of Congress following the upcoming 2026 midterms.
Democrats are hoping to win enough seats to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives, as the split between the two parties is currently very narrow. Typically, the opposition of the incumbent party of the president fares very well in these elections — in 2022, for example, Republicans wrested control of Congress from Democrats after former President Joe Biden’s 2020 win, and in 2018 Democrats did the same, ousting dozens of Republicans two years following Trump’s 2016 presidential victory.
Yet, despite polling that indicates a voter preference for Democrats to control Congress next year, Republicans are currently redrawing congressional maps — years ahead of the next census when they’re constitutionally required to do so — in order to diminish Democratic gains in certain states, putting in jeopardy the outcome that most Americans want to see.
The North Carolina State Senate passed new maps this week with that idea in mind. The state House of Representatives is expected to pass them soon, too, and under state law, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein cannot veto them, leaving a judicial challenge the only way Democrats could possibly have them overturned after passage.
Currently, the U.S. House delegation from the state features 10 Republican representatives and four Democratic ones. Under the new maps being proposed, Democrats would lose one seat, giving Republicans an extra one, creating an 11-3 split overall.
While the move may seem minute compared to the rest of the national races that will occur, Texas and Missouri have passed similar redistricting measures, with a handful of other GOP-controlled legislatures giving the idea serious consideration. With enough states partaking in this scheme, it becomes more likely to be successful, especially if the midterms are close.
That means Democrats will have to win by a wider margin than a typical majority vote across the country in order to attain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. If the Supreme Court strikes down a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, as it’s expected to do next year, that could mean new maps may give Republicans an additional 12 seats, on top of these redistricting actions, diluting Democrats’ chances even further.
The new maps in North Carolina are partisan, Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly recently told The Raleigh News & Observer, explaining that the new boundaries will “very effectively” shift a Democratic-controlled district “to the Republicans,” adding that the new outcome “seems to lock in, 11-3, no matter what happens.”
Republican leaders in the state were not shy about their intentions after passing the new measure.
“President Trump has called on Republican-controlled states across the country to redraw congressional districts. This map answers that call,” State Sen. Ralph Hise (R) said.
Americans broadly oppose mid-census redrawing of political maps. According to a Common Cause poll published last month, 76 percent of Democratic-leaning voters and 72 percent of independents said they disagreed with states redrawing their maps before the next census is conducted. And while a smaller portion of Republican voters agreed, a majority, 57 percent, said they, too, opposed mid-census gerrymandering.
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