One of the remarkable aspects of the politics of health care reform in America is the way that conservatives – even relatively mild, seemingly informed conservatives – have managed to keep believing that the Affordable Care Act is unraveling, despite the repeated failure of disaster predictions to come true.
Part of the way this works is that when it comes to Obamacare, the captive media and the right’s pet “experts” hype every bit of bad news about the law, but go silent when the news is good (and, often, when the bad news turns out to be a false alarm).
How many people will even hear about the news that enrollments are once again running above expectations, and that the enrollment pool is getting younger?
Anyway, it’s really helpful to have a new report from the Commonwealth Fund comparing the actual performance of the ACA with pre-implementation predictions. It turns out that premiums came in far below expectations. (The 2016 premium hikes rolled back some of this positive news, but overall costs still look very good.)
On enrollments: Fewer people than expected signed up for the exchanges, but an important reason was that fewer employers than expected ended coverage and moved their employees into the individual market.
Meanwhile, Medicaid expanded more than projected – and the overall reduction in the number of uninsured Americans was pretty much in line with forecasts.
So the program is achieving its goals, albeit with a somewhat different mix of insurance types than was originally predicted, and doing so more cheaply than anticipated. That’s a big success story – and remember, the critics scoffed at those expectations and prophesied utter disaster.
Where’s the Rubiomentum?
I’m not a political scientist. But I am someone who follows politics, and likes to keep track of conventional wisdom.
So I paid a lot of attention when Senator Marco Rubio was recently elevated to perceived front-runner status for the Republican presidential nomination, basically because on paper he seemed like the natural replacement for the fatally charisma-lacking Jeb Bush.
And maybe it will still happen. But Mr. Rubio hasn’t gotten a flood of high-level endorsements, and he hasn’t shown any signs of achieving a breakthrough in the polls. I’m not a huge believer in prediction markets, which seem more to reflect conventional wisdom than to offer profound insights, but it’s noteworthy that they are less and less convinced that Mr. Rubio is really a front-runner, and they now take both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz seriously.
So what’s going on? Insiders may dislike Mr. Rubio because he has a habit of abandoning his allies when the going gets tough; or maybe there are personal-life issues we haven’t heard about. Meanwhile, voters aren’t seeing much about Mr. Rubio that would give them good reasons to support him.
If Rubiomentum doesn’t surface soon, it’s hard to imagine when it ever will. And I must say, it will be fun watching supposedly moderate Republicans explain why Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz are, in the end, better than Hillary Clinton.
Help us Prepare for Trump’s Day One
Trump is busy getting ready for Day One of his presidency – but so is Truthout.
Trump has made it no secret that he is planning a demolition-style attack on both specific communities and democracy as a whole, beginning on his first day in office. With over 25 executive orders and directives queued up for January 20, he’s promised to “launch the largest deportation program in American history,” roll back anti-discrimination protections for transgender students, and implement a “drill, drill, drill” approach to ramp up oil and gas extraction.
Organizations like Truthout are also being threatened by legislation like HR 9495, the “nonprofit killer bill” that would allow the Treasury Secretary to declare any nonprofit a “terrorist-supporting organization” and strip its tax-exempt status without due process. Progressive media like Truthout that has courageously focused on reporting on Israel’s genocide in Gaza are in the bill’s crosshairs.
As journalists, we have a responsibility to look at hard realities and communicate them to you. We hope that you, like us, can use this information to prepare for what’s to come.
And if you feel uncertain about what to do in the face of a second Trump administration, we invite you to be an indispensable part of Truthout’s preparations.
In addition to covering the widespread onslaught of draconian policy, we’re shoring up our resources for what might come next for progressive media: bad-faith lawsuits from far-right ghouls, legislation that seeks to strip us of our ability to receive tax-deductible donations, and further throttling of our reach on social media platforms owned by Trump’s sycophants.
We’re preparing right now for Trump’s Day One: building a brave coalition of movement media; reaching out to the activists, academics, and thinkers we trust to shine a light on the inner workings of authoritarianism; and planning to use journalism as a tool to equip movements to protect the people, lands, and principles most vulnerable to Trump’s destruction.
We urgently need your help to prepare. As you know, our December fundraiser is our most important of the year and will determine the scale of work we’ll be able to do in 2025. We’ve set two goals: to raise $125,000 in one-time donations and to add 1400 new monthly donors by midnight on December 31.
Today, we’re asking all of our readers to start a monthly donation or make a one-time donation – as a commitment to stand with us on day one of Trump’s presidency, and every day after that, as we produce journalism that combats authoritarianism, censorship, injustice, and misinformation. You’re an essential part of our future – please join the movement by making a tax-deductible donation today.
If you have the means to make a substantial gift, please dig deep during this critical time!
With gratitude and resolve,
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