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Poll Suggests Biden Could Win Support in Key Swing State If He Backs Ceasefire

Polls have found that Biden is trailing far behind Trump in Michigan, a key swing state.

President Joe Biden delivers a statement urging Congress to pass his national security supplemental from the Roosevelt Room at the White House on December 06, 2023 in Washington, D.C.

Polls have been looking extremely dismal for President Joe Biden, with surveys finding that he’s currently poised to lose badly to Donald Trump in crucial swing states in the 2024 election. One new poll, however, suggests that Biden could be capturing more support in at least one of these states — if he heeds overwhelming calls to reverse his position on Israel’s genocide in Gaza.

According to a recent poll of voters in and around Detroit, Michigan, by Data for Progress released Wednesday, if Biden called for a ceasefire, he would gain 16 percent more approval of his handling of Gaza among Detroit-area voters, including a whopping 28 percent gain among Democrats, 15 percent among independents, and even a 2 percent gain among Republicans.

This would deliver majority approval of his Gaza policy from its current level of 38 percent to 54 percent if he called for a ceasefire, with 78 percent of Democrats in support in the latter scenario.

This is fueled by the fact that Detroit-area voters are strongly in favor of ceasefire — 67 percent say they support a permanent ceasefire and deescalation, with 80 percent of Democrats, 66 percent of independents and a plurality of Republicans, at 49 percent, in agreement.

This is a higher proportion of voters who support a ceasefire than the roughly 61 percent of voters who support the idea nationwide, according to other polls. Further, a plurality of voters, at 44 percent, say that Biden has been “too pro-Israel” in his approach, versus 30 percent saying he’s been “too pro-Palestine.”

Meanwhile, the polling found that only 40 percent of voters in the Detroit area say they approve of Biden’s performance so far. This — from a city that went overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020 — echoes other nationwide findings that Biden’s approval is cratering, reaching record lows in recent surveys.

Michigan, which will have 15 electoral votes in the 2024 election, is a crucial swing state for the presidency. But a recent CNN poll found that, in a two-way race between Biden and Trump, Biden would lose by a whopping 10 points in the state.

Foreign policy decisions typically don’t have that big of an impact on presidential approval ratings. But pollsters have said that they are stunned at the impact of Israel’s siege.

Droves of advocates for Palestinian rights have warned that Biden is risking losing a huge number of voters, especially young ones, if he continues to fund Israel’s seemingly unending atrocities in Gaza. Poll numbers support this: An NBC poll found that support for Biden among voters aged 18 to 34 dropped 15 percent between September and November, down to 31 percent. In the same poll, 70 percent of voters said they disapproved of how Biden was handling the genocide.

Biden has not only staunchly supported Israel in its assault of Gaza, he has been seeking to do so quietly. His administration has obfuscated the list of weapons that the administration is sending to Israel, despite releasing lists of weapons it’s sent to Ukraine, and has effectively admitted that Israel is committing war crimes, but is still seeking to transfer arms to Israel as quickly as possible.

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