The scientists are wrong, but not the way you think.
As global warming picks up, scientists and researchers are finally coming to grips with just how serious that problem is, and how quickly we’re running out of time to solve it.
For example, when it comes to sea level increases, scientists have notoriously underestimated how fast the waters are rising.
As this chart shows, sea levels are rising much faster than IPCC projections over the last two decades.
Scientists also underestimated the extent of ice melting in the Arctic. It’s disappearing at a much faster clip than even the direst of projections.
In just a few years, we’ll have our first ice-free Arctic summer in roughly 700,000 years, well before the onset of humanity.
On top of all of that, scientists have also consistently underestimated just how much CO2 we humans are dumping into the atmosphere, again with actual measurements outpacing projections over the last few decades.
So what’s with the history of underestimation?
A team of researchers at the University of Alberta recently published a paper in the journal Global Environmental Change characterizing this dangerous trend of low-balling estimates of global warming.
They note that, “[T]he available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impact of climate change…particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science…[S]cientists are not biased toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates…We call this tendency ‘erring on the side of least drama.’”
Why is this happening?
It’s simple: When going up against a well-funded, ruthlessly powerful special interest like the fossil fuel industry, scientists know that if they rock the boat too much, they might be targeted and discredited.
Just ask Michael Mann,
whose infamous “Hockey Stick” chart shows the recent extreme uptick in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution.
After releasing the “hockey stick” graph, he instantly became the target of smears and was mercilessly attacked by Conservatives and fossil-fuel industry shills.
For far too long, our climate change debate has been focused on not ruffling feathers, on finding economically viable solutions, on depending on the oil companies to lead the energy transition.
That hasn’t worked, and the planet is getting hotter even quicker.
The latest IPCC projection shows at least a 5-degree Celsius temperature increase by 2100, and even if countries around the world reduce carbon emissions, the planet will still warm over 2-degrees, which will have catastrophic consequences for life on Earth.
But, given the history of low projections, the planet could be headed for even warmer temperatures.
Fortunately, over the past year, some scientists have said, “To hell with the right wingers. I’m going to tell the truth even if it does mean they will attack me!”
Now it’s time for the rest of us, and our politicians, to also speak back to the big-money interests who don’t seem to give a damn about planet Earth.
Global warming and global climate change, whatever you call it, is real. It’s caused by us, in large part. And we can stop it, if we act quickly enough. The time for dithering is over. It’s time to act.
Truthout Is Preparing to Meet Trump’s Agenda With Resistance at Every Turn
Dear Truthout Community,
If you feel rage, despondency, confusion and deep fear today, you are not alone. We’re feeling it too. We are heartsick. Facing down Trump’s fascist agenda, we are desperately worried about the most vulnerable people among us, including our loved ones and everyone in the Truthout community, and our minds are racing a million miles a minute to try to map out all that needs to be done.
We must give ourselves space to grieve and feel our fear, feel our rage, and keep in the forefront of our mind the stark truth that millions of real human lives are on the line. And simultaneously, we’ve got to get to work, take stock of our resources, and prepare to throw ourselves full force into the movement.
Journalism is a linchpin of that movement. Even as we are reeling, we’re summoning up all the energy we can to face down what’s coming, because we know that one of the sharpest weapons against fascism is publishing the truth.
There are many terrifying planks to the Trump agenda, and we plan to devote ourselves to reporting thoroughly on each one and, crucially, covering the movements resisting them. We also recognize that Trump is a dire threat to journalism itself, and that we must take this seriously from the outset.
After the election, the four of us sat down to have some hard but necessary conversations about Truthout under a Trump presidency. How would we defend our publication from an avalanche of far right lawsuits that seek to bankrupt us? How would we keep our reporters safe if they need to cover outbreaks of political violence, or if they are targeted by authorities? How will we urgently produce the practical analysis, tools and movement coverage that you need right now — breaking through our normal routines to meet a terrifying moment in ways that best serve you?
It will be a tough, scary four years to produce social justice-driven journalism. We need to deliver news, strategy, liberatory ideas, tools and movement-sparking solutions with a force that we never have had to before. And at the same time, we desperately need to protect our ability to do so.
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We promise we will kick into an even higher gear to give you truthful news that cuts against the disinformation and vitriol and hate and violence. We promise to publish analyses that will serve the needs of the movements we all rely on to survive the next four years, and even build for the future. We promise to be responsive, to recognize you as members of our community with a vital stake and voice in this work.
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With love, rage, and solidarity,
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