New polling indicates that most Americans — including a small but potentially significant number of Republican voters — believe that former President Donald Trump is guilty in the four cases in which he’s been indicted.
Trump has been charged with committing 91 criminal offenses across four separate investigations. Those cases include:
- His attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election, including his use of fake electors to disrupt the Electoral College and his attempts to coerce elections officials to act on his behalf to illegally keep him in the White House;
- His transfer of government records, including hundreds marked as classified, to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, and his obstruction of efforts by federal officials to have the documents returned to the White House;
- His alleged falsifying of business records in New York state relating to his “hush money” payments to women with whom he had extramarital affairs prior to the 2016 presidential race;
- And his efforts in Georgia to coerce elections officials to overturn the 2020 presidential election results in that state.
In the wake of Trump’s latest indictment, a Politico/Ipsos poll published on Friday asked Americans their opinions on Trump’s charges. Although the former president’s lawyers have consistently argued that he shouldn’t have to face a trial until long after the 2024 election, voters largely disagreed with that sentiment.
When asked about the federal case regarding Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election, 59 percent of respondents said that Trump should face a trial before the GOP primaries, while just 19 percent said the trial should start after. Although most Republicans believe that the trial should take place after the primaries, nearly one-third of GOP voters (32 percent) think that the trial should start before.
When asked the same question but about the general election, the numbers were similar, with a slight increase in support for a trial taking place sooner rather than later. Sixty-one percent of voters overall said that Trump should face a trial regarding his efforts to overturn the 2020 election before the 2024 election.
The poll also asked respondents whether they believe Trump is guilty in the four cases he has been indicted in. Fifty-one percent of voters think Trump is guilty in both the Georgia and federal election subversion cases, while 52 percent believe he is guilty in the Mar-a-Lago documents case. A plurality of respondents (48 percent) also think Trump is guilty in the New York business records case.
Most Americans approve of the way the Department of Justice (DOJ) has conducted its investigations into Trump. Fifty-nine percent of respondents in the Politico/Ipsos poll said that the DOJ’s decision to indict Trump in the 2020 election subversion case “was based on a fair evaluation of the evidence and the law.”
In spite of these numbers, Trump is still considered likely to win the Republican Party’s nomination, as he’s polling well ahead of the other candidates. But the Politico/Ipsos poll shows that he’ll have a difficult time winning the votes of the general electorate, among whom he is far less popular.