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Poll: Around Two-Thirds of Americans Say They Probably Won’t Vote for Trump

Trump still has considerable support from GOP voters, indicating he’ll likely be the party’s nominee for president.

Former President Donald Trump delivers remarks at Windham High School in New Hampshire on August 8, 2023.

New polling indicates former President Donald Trump will have an incredibly difficult time courting voters in the 2024 presidential election, as nearly two-thirds of Americans say that, if he’s the Republican nominee, they probably won’t vote for him.

According to an Associated Press/NORC poll published earlier this week, Trump has disastrous favorability ratings among voters, with just 35 percent of Americans saying they view him “very” or “somewhat” favorably, while 62 percent say they view him “very or “somewhat” unfavorably.

When voters were asked whether they’d support either leading candidate for either of the two major parties, both Trump and President Joe Biden fared poorly in the survey. Yet Trump did far worse on the question than Biden did.

While 54 percent said they wouldn’t likely support Biden if he is nominated again as the Democratic Party’s candidate for president, a whopping 63 percent of Americans said they definitely or probably wouldn’t vote for Trump. Forty-five percent of voters said they would support Biden if he’s renominated, but only 36 percent said the same about Trump.

The numbers showcase the difficult position that Trump is in, a little more than one year out from the general election, as a challenger to an incumbent president.

While he’ll face difficult odds if he’s pitted, once again, against Biden in the general election, Trump will likely cruise to victory in the Republican primaries, as the poll shows voters in that party still back him — 7 in 10 Republican-leaning voters view him favorably, and 6 in 10 say they still want him to run for president again, the poll found.

Other polls for the Republican primaries show Trump is well ahead of his competitors. According to an aggregate of polling data collected by RealClearPolitics, Trump garners 54.7 percent of support from GOP voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is the next-closest to Trump in terms of popularity, only receives around 14.8 percent, on average, according to the polling data compiled.

Trump’s popularity among Republicans doesn’t seem to be affected by the four indictments he has received over the past five months. But separate polling data, from a Reuters/Ipsos survey published earlier this month, showed that support from Republican-leaning voters would drop significantly if Trump were convicted of a crime.

A plurality of GOP-aligned voters, 45 percent, said they wouldn’t vote for him if he was found guilty in a court of law, that poll found. If Trump is in prison by the time the 2024 election rolls around, 52 percent of Republican voters said they wouldn’t vote for him.

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