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New Poll Shows Shift in Momentum Favoring Biden Among Swing State Voters

The shift in poll numbers comes after Biden’s State of the Union address and his recent touring of several swing states.

President Joe Biden salutes upon arrival at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland as he returns to the White House on March 21, 2024.

New polling data shows that the race for president between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is tightening in swing states, with Biden gaining ground in all but one of them.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll measured voters’ attitudes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, between the dates of March 8-15.

Biden narrowly leads Trump in just one state, Wisconsin, attaining 46 percent of support among that state’s residents versus 45 percent for the former president. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, the two candidates for 2024 are tied, receiving 45 points among voters in those two states respectively. And in Nevada, Trump leads Biden by 2 points, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

Trump leads Biden in the remaining three states: In North Carolina, he’s ahead by 6 points; in Georgia, by 7 points; and in Arizona, by 5 points.

Observed on its own, the poll suggests that the race for president in these all-important swing states will be incredibly close. But when compared to previous polling data, the poll shows that Biden is gaining momentum in the race.

Biden is now tied or slightly leading Trump in three states, with a fourth state he’s behind in being technically statistically tied. In February, however, in the same Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Biden was losing in all seven swing states.

When you look at the polls side by side, net support for Biden has shifted positively in all but one of those states. In Wisconsin, his support has grown by 5 points; in Pennsylvania, by 6 points; in North Carolina, by 3 points; in Michigan and Arizona, by 2 points; and in Nevada, by 4 points. Only in one state, Georgia, has Trump’s support seen a net gain and Biden’s a net loss, by 1 point.

Biden’s recent gains could help him in the Electoral College, too. If the map stays the same for all non-swing states, and if Biden wins the states where he’s currently winning or tied, he would defeat Trump in the Electoral College by a slim 270 votes to 268.

It’s unclear what has led to the dramatic shift in polling data between the two surveys. It’s possible that Biden’s State of the Union Address, which received positive marks overall, helped “bump” him up in the polls. Biden has also been on a tour of several of these swing states, making public appearances as he gears up for the general election contest.

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