Skip to content Skip to footer

El Niño-Induced Drought Will Reduce Shipping Through Panama Canal

The El Niño weather phenomenon is becoming more disruptive due to the effects of climate change, a new study shows.

An aerial view of a shipping tanker waiting to get through the Panama Canal, in Panama City on August 28, 2026.

Did you know that Truthout is a nonprofit and independently funded by readers like you? If you value what we do, please support our work with a donation.

While much of the world is focused on the disruption of shipping traffic near Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, another critical waterway is set to see its flow of ships sharply reduced in the coming weeks: the Panama Canal.

The reason? The ​​El Niño weather phenomenon is creating drought conditions in the region.

​​El Niño is a regular weather pattern that happens every two to seven years. But the effects of the climate crisis are likely making this year’s ​​El Niño more intense than usual.

According to a new study published in Science, El Niños are 36 percent stronger than they were before the industrial age. That includes a 16 percent jump in intensity over just the past 40 years.

In preparation for intensifying drought conditions, the Panama Canal is reducing the number of ships that can pass through. While ordinarily 40 ships enter and exit the canal daily, that number will be lessened to 34 per day for the first half of September. Starting mid-month, that number will go down to just 32 ships per day, a 20 percent reduction.

The Panama Canal works through a series of locks, which raise water levels from one side to the other as ships pass through. Although connecting two oceans, the locks are fed by nearby Gatún Lake and another artificial reservoir.

Those lakes, however, also provide drinking water and hydroelectric power for people living nearby.

“When water levels get too low in those reservoirs, they have to restrict the number of ships that go through because they want to conserve water for those other uses that are also critical,” said Samuel Muñoz, an associate professor at Northeastern University, speaking to Inside Climate News about the matter.

Traffic through the canal represents about 5 percent of the world’s global trade, including 40 percent of all container traffic for the U.S. The reduction in daily shipping traffic will undoubtedly impact prices on many goods, particularly in the U.S., at a time when prices are already increasing due to the Trump administration’s economic policies and decision to launch a war against Iran.

While the effects of the climate crisis are likely to blame for this year’s ​​El Niño bringing worse drought conditions to the Panama Canal, the Trump administration continues to disregard human-made climate change as a legitimate existential threat, firing climate scientists within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and even removing language from government websites that once recognized the crisis as real.

We lost 15 percent of our traffic overnight.

We now have three full months of data since Google changed its search to feature AI results. The numbers are worse than we anticipated. Overall readership that comes to Truthout through Google is down 54 percent against last year. The number of new readers who discover Truthout via Google searches is down 49 percent, and returning users from Google are down 51 percent.

We lost 15 percent of our readership overnight. This was a readership we painstakingly built over decades, and it vanished because Google chose corporate greed over a healthy democracy.

We anticipate a loss of roughly $500,000 in online revenue as a result of this massive traffic plunge in the next year alone.

The only way we can keep publishing is with strong reader support. We are asking you to start a monthly donation to Truthout today — anything you can do, whether $5 or $25, makes a difference.