According to recent polling data, former President Donald Trump is currently the frontrunner for the GOP nomination for president in 2024 — but various criminal probes into his actions in recent years could impact how he fares in the general election.
A poll from Yahoo News/YouGov, conducted from May 25-30 and published earlier this week, showcases that voters overall are not keen on electing someone who has been charged with or convicted of a serious crime.
The majority of the poll’s respondents believe Trump has committed such a crime at some point in his life, with 52 percent saying as much. Just over a quarter of voters (27 percent) believe Trump hasn’t ever committed a serious crime, while another 21 percent are unsure.
The survey’s respondents were also asked to specify what constitutes a major crime, with the pollsters asking questions relating to several ongoing investigations into Trump (including one in which he’s already been indicted).
Fifty-two percent of voters, for example, believe it’s a serious crime for someone to conceal hush money payments to an adult film actress, as Trump has allegedly done, according to evidence compiled by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office.
Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of voters also believe it’s a serious crime for someone to remove “highly classified” documents from the White House. Again, Trump is likely to be indicted by the Department of Justice (DOJ) for that incident as soon as this week.
Meanwhile, 66 percent of voters believe it’s a serious crime to try to overturn the results of a presidential election. The DOJ is currently investigating Trump’s efforts to overturn his loss to President Joe Biden in late 2020 and early 2021.
Citing these and other inquiries, the Yahoo News/YouGov poll also asked if respondents felt differently about Trump given that he’s under investigation or has already been indicted on these issues. Forty-three percent say their opinion on Trump hasn’t changed, but over a third of respondents (34 percent) say they feel more negatively about him than they did before. Among Republican respondents alone, 22 percent say they feel more negatively about him — although this isn’t enough to diminish his stature as the frontrunner in the party, but a substantial number that he likely cannot afford to lose if he indeed becomes the GOP nominee in 2024.
More importantly, however, a significant chunk of the general electorate does not believe Trump should be able to serve if he’s convicted of a serious crime, with over 6 in 10 voters (62 percent) saying he should be disqualified from the presidency in the future and fewer than a quarter (23 percent) saying he should still be able to serve.
Although Republican voters have remained loyal to Trump throughout several years of controversy and anti-democratic sentiment, close to 4 in 10 GOP voters (39 percent) say he shouldn’t be president again if he’s convicted.
The U.S. Constitution does not bar someone from running for office if they have been charged or convicted of a crime. Still, Trump’s support would likely suffer if he’s convicted or charged with a crime between now and 2024.
As it stands right now, Trump and presumed Democratic nominee Biden are neck-and-neck. According to an aggregate of polls from RealClearPolitics, Trump leads Biden by around 1.8 points as of Thursday night, although that number is within the margin of error.
If nothing changes between now and Election Day 2024 and the election is a rematch of the 2020 race between Trump and Biden, the winner would appear to be up in the air. But as rumors abound that the DOJ will soon issue charges against Trump relating to his improper handling of classified documents after leaving office and/or his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election — in addition to other state-based charges, including in Georgia and in New York — Trump’s chances of winning against Biden will likely decrease.
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