In November 2010, after electoral victories gave Republicans control over 19 new state legislative bodies, GOP operative Karl Rove told the crowd at a fracking conference not to worry. Congress wouldn’t be passing new oil and gas regulations any time soon.
“He who controls the pen draws the line, and he who draws the line decides the outcome of most contests,” said Rove.
Every decade, the Census results require new voting district boundaries, and in many states, partisan commissions or the legislatures themselves draw the lines — both congressional districts and their own state legislative districts. Thus, Republican majorities would give their party a massive advantage by creating favorable districts, or gerrymandering, and be able to block Democratic attempts at addressing climate change.
Because of gerrymandering, 59 million Americans currently live under minority rule — where the governing party won the minority of votes in the most recent election but controls the majority of seats in the state legislature. That’s according to a 2019 study from University of Southern California (USC), which identified the states with the worst partisan gerrymanders.
With the new Census coming to an end — albeit with pending court decisions stemming from the Trump administration’s attempts to limit the process and cut out undocumented immigrants for partisan gain — it’s nearly time for the state chambers to draw new voting districts. Fresh off of the 2020 elections in which Republicans kept all their legislative majorities and took control of chambers in New Hampshire and Alaska, GOP lawmakers will be empowered to further slice up their states to aid their party. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to challenge the practice of partisan gerrymandering last year, so it will inevitably continue.
A CMD analysis has found that the most recent state elections will perpetuate the discrepancies between vote totals and legislative seats in many states. In the five states that the USC study determined were the most gerrymandered states — Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Republicans will control eight out of the ten legislative bodies, and in each chamber, Republicans will be overrepresented.
In the most extreme gerrymanders of the five worst states, GOP lawmakers in North Carolina and Wisconsin wound up controlling over 7 percent more of the House seats than the popular vote would warrant. And in the Michigan and Wisconsin senate chambers, GOP lawmakers hold over 10 percent more seats than their collective share of votes.
In recent elections, voters were aware of extreme partisan gerrymandering in their states and acted on that knowledge. This year, Virginians overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure to establish a bipartisan redistricting commission, with members appointed by both parties. In 2018, five states passed redistricting reforms, including Michigan, where 61 percent of voters approved an independent redistricting commission. While reforms have passed in some states, the redistricting process in others is still rife with partisanship.
1. Wisconsin
Because the courts mandated some new Virginia districts due to Republicans’ racial gerrymandering, Wisconsin has become the worst state for partisan redistricting. GOP lawmakers hold a 10.1 percent advantage in seats over their vote share in the Senate and 7.1 percent advantage in the House. Wisconsinites do not live under minority rule, however, as Republicans won over half of the votes in both chambers.
2. Michigan
Michiganders live under minority rule. In both legislative chambers, Democratic candidates won the majority of 2020 votes, yet Republicans hold more seats. Of the five states examined by CMD, Michigan has the most gerrymandered chamber, its Senate. The GOP won just 47.2 percent of the state Senate votes but will control nearly 57.9 percent of the seats, a discrepancy of nearly 11 percentage points.
3. North Carolina
The state that passed voting restrictions that targeted African Americans “with surgical precision” also enacted extreme partisan gerrymanders, thanks to the Republican-dominated legislature. The courts required lawmakers to redraw both congressional and state legislative districts, but after this year’s elections, the state House and Senate are still gerrymandered to favor the GOP. In the House, GOP representatives got exactly half of the state’s votes but control 57.5 percent of the seats.
4. Virginia
In Virginia, Democrats hold majorities in both legislative chambers, but in the Senate, Republicans will control 47.5 percent of the seats after having won only 39.4 percent of the total Senate votes. Until now, the legislature, which was controlled by Republicans in 2011, drew the electoral districts.
5. Pennsylvania
In 2018, the courts forced Pennsylvania legislators to redraw the state’s congressional districts after tossing out Republican partisan gerrymanders, but its legislative districts remain imbalanced.
We’re not backing down in the face of Trump’s threats.
As Donald Trump is inaugurated a second time, independent media organizations are faced with urgent mandates: Tell the truth more loudly than ever before. Do that work even as our standard modes of distribution (such as social media platforms) are being manipulated and curtailed by forces of fascist repression and ruthless capitalism. Do that work even as journalism and journalists face targeted attacks, including from the government itself. And do that work in community, never forgetting that we’re not shouting into a faceless void – we’re reaching out to real people amid a life-threatening political climate.
Our task is formidable, and it requires us to ground ourselves in our principles, remind ourselves of our utility, dig in and commit.
As a dizzying number of corporate news organizations – either through need or greed – rush to implement new ways to further monetize their content, and others acquiesce to Trump’s wishes, now is a time for movement media-makers to double down on community-first models.
At Truthout, we are reaffirming our commitments on this front: We won’t run ads or have a paywall because we believe that everyone should have access to information, and that access should exist without barriers and free of distractions from craven corporate interests. We recognize the implications for democracy when information-seekers click a link only to find the article trapped behind a paywall or buried on a page with dozens of invasive ads. The laws of capitalism dictate an unending increase in monetization, and much of the media simply follows those laws. Truthout and many of our peers are dedicating ourselves to following other paths – a commitment which feels vital in a moment when corporations are evermore overtly embedded in government.
Over 80 percent of Truthout‘s funding comes from small individual donations from our community of readers, and the remaining 20 percent comes from a handful of social justice-oriented foundations. Over a third of our total budget is supported by recurring monthly donors, many of whom give because they want to help us keep Truthout barrier-free for everyone.
You can help by giving today. Whether you can make a small monthly donation or a larger gift, Truthout only works with your support.